近日，北京大学陶胜利团队报道了在2023-2024年的干旱期间，亚马逊雨林遭受了前所未有的破坏。2026年3月23日出版的《美国科学院院刊》杂志发表了这项成果。

2023年至2024年间，亚马孙雨林经历了连续两次创纪录的干旱——每次均比以往观测到的任何干旱都更为强烈，但其影响尚未得到充分量化。利用新开发的月度雷达卫星观测数据（1992-2025年），该数据可追踪森林水分与生物量动态，研究组分析了亚马孙原始雨林对过去重大干旱（尤其是2023-2024年事件）的长期响应，并预估了其旱后恢复情况。

研究发现，2023-2024年间整个生物群系的雷达信号急剧下降，创下1992年以来的最低水平。从空间上看，26.8%的森林在此期间达到了三十年来的最低值，主要分布在亚马孙东部。这一比例是2005年干旱期间（当时11.0%的森林达到此类最低值）的两倍多。此外，基于历史与CMIP6未来降水情景的预估均表明，即使在2023-2024年干旱发生7年后，预计受灾区域中恢复至干旱前状况的比例仍不足50%，而这些森林具有土壤阳离子浓度较低、土壤含沙量较高、冠层高度较低的特征——这些特性降低了水力失效的风险。

鉴于过去三十年间严重干旱大约每7年发生一次，亚马孙雨林在从2023-2024年事件中完全恢复之前，可能将面临另一次干旱。因此，该研究结果凸显了亚马孙雨林对厄尔尼诺事件和持续的人为气候变化所驱动的日益加剧的极端气候的脆弱性，为这些森林正接近其工业时代前生存环境的极限提供了证据。

附：英文原文

Title: Unprecedented Amazonian rainforests damage during the 2023–2024 droughts

Author: Bai, Hao, Liu, Xiangzhuo, Yang, Hui, Chave, Jerome, Ciais, Philippe, Wigneron, Jean-Pierre, Saatchi, Sassan, Xiao, Jingfeng, Le Toan, Thuy, Hu, Xiaomei, Yang, Ziyan, Wang, Lijun, Fan, Lei, Yao, Yitong, Chen, Xiuzhi, Liu, Yanxu, Xue, Baolin, Guo, Qinghua, Tang, Zhiyao, Liu, Hongyan, Fang, Jingyun, Tao, Shengli

Issue&Volume: 2026-3-23

Abstract: Between 2023 and 2024, Amazonian rainforests experienced two consecutive, record-breaking droughts—each more intense than any previously observed—yet their impacts remain largely unquantified. Using newly developed monthly radar satellite observations (1992 to 2025) that track forest moisture and biomass dynamics, we analyzed the long-term responses of intact Amazonian rainforests to past major droughts—particularly the 2023–2024 event—and projected their post-drought recovery. We found a biome-wide sharp decline in radar signal during 2023–2024, marking the lowest level observed since 1992. Spatially, 26.8% of the forests reached their three-decade minima during this period, primarily in eastern Amazonia. This ratio is more than double that recorded during the 2005 drought, when 11.0% of the forests reached such minima. Moreover, projections based on both historical and future CMIP6 precipitation scenarios consistently indicated that, even 7 y after the 2023–2024 droughts, less than 50% of the affected areas are expected to recover to predrought conditions, and these forests are associated with lower soil cation concentrations, higher soil sand content, and lower canopy height—characteristics that lessen the risk of hydraulic failure. Given that severe droughts have occurred approximately every 7 y over the past three decades, Amazonian rainforests may face another drought before fully recovering from the 2023–2024 event. Our results therefore highlight the growing vulnerability of the Amazonian rainforests to intensifying climate extremes driven by El Nio events and ongoing anthropogenic climate change, providing evidence that these forests are approaching the limits of their preindustrial operating space.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2514066123

Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2514066123