近日，中山大学张团团课题组报道了沿海海洋变暖加剧了潮湿热浪的大规模聚集。该项研究成果发表在2026年3月24日出版的《自然—地球科学》杂志上。

大规模并发湿热浪会显著增加热相关死亡率的风险。然而，量化这些并发极端事件的成因仍具挑战性。

研究组利用复杂网络方法分析气候再分析数据，发现1982—2023年间观测到的湿热浪加剧与沿海海洋变暖密切相关。相较于局地性湿热浪，这种关联在大尺度极端湿热浪的聚集现象中更为显著。特别是在热点区域，湿热浪频率上升趋势的约50%和空间聚集强度上升趋势的约64%均与邻近海洋有关。

这种陆-海关联主要源于热带海洋向陆地区域的水汽输送，以及中高纬度地区与大气罗斯贝波耦合的陆地-海洋协同增温。与中高纬度相比，热带地区囊括了大部分高风险区域，且呈现更强的陆-海关联，凸显了热带海洋的关键作用。气候模式实验进一步证实了热带海洋对邻近陆地湿热浪的影响。研究组揭示了沿海海表温度可作为湿热浪大规模聚集的重要前兆因子。

附：英文原文

Title: Large-scale aggregation of humid heatwaves exacerbated by coastal oceanic warming

Author: Cai, Fenying, Gerten, Dieter, Zhang, Keer, Zhang, Tuantuan, Yang, Song, Kurths, Jrgen

Issue&Volume: 2026-03-24

Abstract: Large-scale concurrences of humid heatwaves substantially escalate the risks of heat-related mortality. However, quantifying the origins of these concurrent extremes remains challenging. Here we use a complex network approach applied to climate reanalysis data to show that the observed intensification of humid heatwaves is closely associated with coastal oceanic warming over the period 1982–2023. This linkage is more pronounced for the large-scale aggregation of extreme humid heatwaves than for the locally confined events. In particular, approximately 50% and 64% of the upward trends in humid heatwave frequency and spatial-aggregation strength over hotspot regions are linked to their adjacent oceans, respectively. These land–ocean linkages largely arise from tropical ocean-driven moisture transport towards land regions and from coupled terrestrial–oceanic warming in the mid-to-high latitudes associated with atmospheric Rossby waves. Compared with mid-to-high latitudes, the tropics encompass most high-risk areas and exhibit stronger land–ocean linkages, highlighting the critical role of tropical oceans. Climate model experiments further demonstrate the influence of tropical oceans on adjacent terrestrial humid heatwaves. Our study provides insights that coastal sea surface temperature can be a crucial precursor of the large-scale aggregation of humid heatwaves.

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01952-z

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-01952-z