近日，东北林业大学Qichao YAO团队报道了青藏高原东缘火灾季节的驱动因素分析。该研究于2026年2月26日发表在《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

野火是最具破坏性的自然灾害之一，对生态系统、人类社会和经济造成广泛且往往具有毁灭性的影响。在青藏高原东缘，随着极端高温事件频发，野火已导致消防人员重大伤亡，尤其是在被称为"恶性火灾季"的三月。

研究组基于青藏高原东缘三次大型和特大型野火事件，揭示了不同时间尺度下野火的气象驱动因子，并探讨了防火政策的影响。在月尺度上，高饱和水汽压差和干旱为恶性火灾季创造了极易引发火灾的气象条件。在日和小时尺度上，气温骤升、低相对湿度和风向变化是恶性火灾季极端野火的关键触发因素。此外，气候变暖与防火政策等长期因素导致森林可燃物载量累积，提升了极端火行为的风险。研究表明，需采取更均衡的火灾管理策略，以降低青藏高原东缘的野火风险，保障消防人员生命安全。

附：英文原文

Title: Driving factors of “evil fire season” in the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau

Author: Lamei SHI, Qichao YAO, Peter BROWN

Issue&Volume: 2026/02/26

Abstract: Wildfires are among the most devastating natural disasters, causing widespread and often destructive effects to ecosystems, human communities, and economies. In the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), with the increasing frequency of extreme heatwave events, wildfires have resulted in significant casualties among firefighters, particularly in March, a period known as the “evil fire season”. Here, we show the meteorological driving factors of wildfires across different time scales based on three large and extremely large wildfires in the eastern edge of the TP and examine the impact of fire control policies. At a monthly scale, high vapor pressure deficit and drought provide weather conditions highly conducive for fires to occur in the evil fire season. At daily and hourly scales, temperature spikes, low relative humidity, and wind shifts are key triggers for extreme wildfires in the evil fire season. Furthermore, long-term factors such as climate warming and fire control policies have led to the accumulation of forest fuels, raising the risk of extreme fire behavior. The study suggests a more balanced fire management strategy to mitigate wildfire risks in the eastern edge of the TP and safeguard the lives of firefighters.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-025-1821-6

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/10.1007/s11430-025-1821-6