近日，日本东京大学Ko Tsuchida团队报道了多年的拉尼娜-厄尔尼诺转变影响了地球在2022-2023年的极端能量吸收。相关论文发表在2026年2月12日出版的《自然—地球科学》杂志上。
地球能量摄取——定义为大气层顶全球平均净入射辐射通量——在2022至2023年间出现激增，这直接导致了2023至2024年全球地表温度屡创新高及极端气候频发。然而，这一极端能量摄取事件的成因尚不明确，反映出当前对气候内部变率如何塑造地球能量收支失衡的认知局限。
研究组通过多模式气候模拟与卫星观测数据，揭示了观测到的极端能量摄取事件的驱动机制。研究表明，在持续外强迫导致的正能量失衡背景下，持续多年的拉尼娜向厄尔尼诺的转型是2022-2023年地球极端能量摄取的关键因素。基于多模式模拟数据集的抽样分析凸显了拉尼娜-厄尔尼诺序列对能量摄取增强的主导作用，其中前期拉尼娜事件的多年持续性具有决定性意义。结合共享社会经济路径情景下估算的外强迫分量，拉尼娜-厄尔尼诺转型的贡献可解释观测到的极端能量摄取事件的约75%。该研究揭示了气候内部变率对地球能量收支的塑造作用，并预示其在气候变暖背景下可能呈现的放大效应。
附：英文原文
Title: Multi-year La Nina–El Nino transition influenced Earth’s extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023
Author: Tsuchida, Ko, Kosaka, Yu, Minobe, Shoshiro
Issue&Volume: 2026-02-12
Abstract: Earth’s energy uptake—defined as the global mean net incoming radiation at the top of the atmosphere—surged in 2022–2023, contributing to record global surface temperatures and widespread climate extremes in 2023–2024. Yet, the causes of this extreme energy uptake remain unclear, reflecting limited knowledge of how internal climate variability shapes Earth’s energy imbalance. Here we investigate the drivers of the observed extreme energy uptake by using multi-model climate simulations and satellite-based observations. We show that the transition from the multi-year La Nia to El Nio was key to Earth’s extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023, upon the externally forced positive imbalance. Our sampling analyses from the multi-model simulation dataset highlight the dominant influence of the La Nia-to-El Nio sequence on enhanced energy uptake, with crucial importance of multi-year persistence in preceding La Nia. When combined with estimates of the externally forced component derived under Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios, the contribution associated with the La Nia-to-El Nio transition explains about 75% of the observed extreme energy uptake. Our finding underscores the role of internal climate variability in shaping Earth’s energy budget and its potential amplification under a warming climate.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-01921-6
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-01921-6