近日，德国韦斯林欧洲强风暴实验室Francesco Battaglioli团队报道了对比全球特大冰雹事件和相关经济损失的趋势。相关论文于2025年12月29日发表在《自然—地球科学》杂志上。
产生直径超过5厘米冰雹的强冰雹天气对财产和基础设施造成最严重的破坏，常导致数十亿美元的经济损失。
研究组通过将统计模型与大气再分析数据相结合，构建了1950年至2023年间此类特大冰雹事件的全球气候特征，并分析了其发生频率及相关经济影响的趋势。阿根廷北部是全球特大冰雹事件最集中的热点地区，其次是乌拉圭、巴拉圭、巴西南部、美国大平原地区和南非。亚洲以及（程度稍轻的）欧洲和澳大利亚的发生频率显著较低。欧洲的特大冰雹事件频率增幅最大，这主要由低层湿度增加和大气不稳定性增强驱动。
相比之下，南半球——尤其是南美洲——则呈现显著下降趋势，这与中层湿度和不稳定性降低有关。美国、澳大利亚和欧洲与冰雹相关的损失持续增加。在欧洲，损失上升主要归因于特大冰雹事件更为频发；而在美国和澳大利亚，暴露度和脆弱性的增加是主要驱动因素。冰雹频率及相关损失的这种区域差异性趋势表明，需要制定兼顾气候驱动因素与社会经济脆弱性的针对性风险管理策略。
附：英文原文
Title: Contrasting trends in very large hail events and related economic losses across the globe
Author: Battaglioli, Francesco, Taszarek, Mateusz, Groenemeijer, Pieter, Pik, Tom, Rdler, Anja
Issue&Volume: 2025-12-29
Abstract: Hailstorms producing hail larger than 5cm cause the most severe damage to property and infrastructure, often leading to multibillion-dollar losses. Here we develop a global climatology of these very large hail events from 1950 to 2023 by combining statistical modelling with atmospheric reanalysis and examine trends in their frequency and related economic impacts. Northern Argentina emerges as the global hotspot of very large hail events, followed by Uruguay, Paraguay, southern Brazil, the US Great Plains and South Africa. Asia—and to a lesser extent, Europe and Australia—show substantially lower frequencies. Europe is seeing the sharpest rise in the frequency of very large hail events, driven by increasing low-level moisture and atmospheric instability. By contrast, the Southern Hemisphere—especially South America—is experiencing notable declines, linked to reduced mid-level humidity and instability. Hail-related losses have increased in the USA, Australia and Europe. In Europe, the rise is mainly due to more frequent very large hail events, whereas in the USA and Australia, increasing exposure and vulnerability are the primary drivers. These contrasting regional trends in hail frequency and related losses underscore the need for tailored risk management strategies that account for both climatic drivers and socio-economic vulnerabilities.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01868-0
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01868-0