近日，美国加州大学圣芭芭拉分校Benjamin S. Halpern团队揭示，预计到本世纪中叶，人类对全球海洋生态系统的累积影响将增加一倍以上。该研究于2025年9月4日发表在《科学》杂志上。

来自人类活动的压力预计将显著增加，影响全球的海洋生态系统。为了规划一个可持续的未来，人们需要预测多种压力累积影响的分布。

研究组绘制了本世纪中叶（~2050年）两种气候情景下，10种气候、陆地、渔业和其他压力对20种海洋栖息地的未来累积影响（10 km分辨率）。结果发现，全球累积影响预计将增加2.2至2.6倍，沿海栖息地面临的影响更大，但近海地区面临的影响更快，特别是在赤道地区。此外，许多依赖海洋资源的国家所受到的影响将大大增加。将这些成果纳入战略政策和管理将支持更具可持续性的主题和海洋生态系统保护以及为人们提供的服务。

附：英文原文

Title: Cumulative impacts to global marine ecosystems projected to more than double by midcentury

Author: Benjamin S. Halpern, Melanie Frazier, Casey C. O’Hara, O. Alejandra Vargas-Fonseca, Amanda T. Lombard

Issue&Volume: 2025-09-04

Abstract: Pressures from human activities are expected to increase significantly, impacting marine ecosystems globally. To plan for a sustainable future, we need to forecast distributions of cumulative impacts from multiple pressures. Here we mapped (10km resolution) future cumulative impacts of ten climate, land-based, fishing and other pressures on twenty marine habitats under two climate scenarios at midcentury (~2050). We found cumulative impacts are projected to increase 2.2 to 2.6 times globally, with coastal habitats facing higher impacts but offshore regions facing faster increases, especially in equatorial regions. Furthermore, many countries dependent on marine resources will have large increases in impacts. Incorporating these results into strategic policy and management will support more sustainable use and protection of marine ecosystems and the services provided to people.

DOI: adv2906

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adv2906