近日，美国马里兰大学Matthew J. Gidden团队研究了地球对地质碳储量的审慎约束。2025年9月3日出版的《自然》杂志发表了这一最新研究成果。

在地质上储存碳是减少化石燃料排放和持久地从大气中去除二氧化碳的关键策略。然而，储存潜力并不是无限的。

研究组通过对沉积盆地碳储存进行基于风险、空间明晰的分析，确定了一个审慎的行星级碳储存限值，约为 1460（1290–2710）吉吨二氧化碳。研究表明，只有在近期大幅削减总排放量，才能降低在2200年前突破这一限值的风险。将地质储存完全用于碳移除，最多可使全球气温降低 0.7°C（0.35–1.2°C，其中包含储存量估算及气候响应的不确定性）。在该风险评估中，表现最为稳健的国家是当前大规模开采化石资源的国家。将碳储存视为一种有限的代际资源，这对国家减排战略和政策具有深远影响，也要求我们就储存使用的优先事项做出明确决策。

附：英文原文

Title: A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage

Author: Gidden, Matthew J., Joshi, Siddharth, Armitage, John J., Christ, Alina-Berenice, Boettcher, Miranda, Brutschin, Elina, Kberle, Alexandre C., Riahi, Keywan, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Rogelj, Joeri

Issue&Volume: 2025-09-03

Abstract: Geologically storing carbon is a key strategy for abating emissions from fossil fuels and durably removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere1,2. However, the storage potential is not unlimited3,4. Here we establish a prudent planetary limit of around 1,460(1,290–2,710)Gt of CO2 storage through a risk-based, spatially explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins. We show that only stringent near-term gross emissions reductions can lower the risk of breaching this limit before the year 2200. Fully using geologic storage for carbon removal caps the possible global temperature reduction to 0.7°C (0.35–1.2°C, including storage estimate and climate response uncertainty). The countries most robust to our risk assessment are current large-scale extractors of fossil resources. Treating carbon storage as a limited intergenerational resource has deep implications for national mitigation strategies and policy and requires making explicit decisions on priorities for storage use.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09423-y

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09423-y