近日，中国地质大学王成善团队研究了1.2亿年前，类似厄尔尼诺南方涛动的活动年际变化。该研究于2025年9月29日发表在《地质学》杂志上。

厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）是年际气候波动的主要模式，产生影响当今全球气候变率的遥相关。它在过去的温室气候中的行为为理解全球变暖下未来ENSO提供了一个新视角。尽管自晚白垩纪以来，每年都有明确的地质证据表明ENSO活动，但早期温室期的ENSO活动却没有得到很好的解决。

研究组基于中国东北地区年度分辨率湖相沉积物的证据，揭示了距今1.2亿年前的年际降水变率信号，其主要频段为2-5年。对早白垩世进行的耦合气候模拟显示，在热带太平洋海表温度中出现了类ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）变率，并通过大气遥相关作用影响中国东北降水，其周期性同样为2-5年。与现代ENSO相比，早白垩世的类ENSO变率表现出更高频次和更强振幅的特征，这一现象与未来ENSO演变的预测模型具有相似性。

附：英文原文

Title: Active El NioSouthern Oscillationlike interannual variability 120 million years ago

Author: Yuan Gao, Xing Tian, Yongyun Hu, Xiang Li, Wenju Cai, Jianming Qin, Jiaqi Guo, Xiaojing Du, Tyler Kukla, Daniel E. Ibarra, He Huang, Lixin Wu, Chengshan Wang

Issue&Volume: 2025-09-29

Abstract: The El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate fluctuation, generating teleconnections impacting global climate variability today. Its behavior in past greenhouse climates provides a useful perspective for understanding future ENSO under global warming. Despite annually resolved geologic evidence of active ENSO since the Late Cretaceous, ENSO operation at earlier greenhouse periods is poorly resolved. Here, we present evidence from annually resolved lacustrine sediments in northeast China showing signals of interannual precipitation variability 120 m.y. ago, with major frequency bands of 25 yr. A coupled climate simulation of the Early Cretaceous generates ENSO-like variability with similar 25 yr periodicities in tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric teleconnection to northeast China precipitation. The Early Cretaceous ENSO-like variability shows higher frequency and stronger amplitude compared to modern ENSO, resembling predictions of future ENSO evolution.

DOI: 10.1130/G53646.1

Source: https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/doi/10.1130/G53646.1/661516/Active-El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation-likeredirectedFrom=fulltext