近日，印度热带气象研究中心Phani Murali Krishna团队揭示了温暖气候下印度夏季风季节内变化强劲增加。这一研究成果于2025年9月1日发表在《大气科学进展》杂志上。

尽管具有重要的社会和科学意义，但在温室气体浓度增加的情况下，与印度夏季季风降雨（ISMR）相关的季内振荡（ISOs）特征的预估变化在很大程度上仍未得到探索。研究组利用耦合模式比对项目第6阶段（CMIP6）的17个模式的缩小和偏差校正的历史模拟和预估来研究ISO的未来演变。

研究结果表明，在遥远的未来，在非常高的排放情景下，印度的ISO变异性将增加两倍，这引起了人们对其不利的社会经济影响的严重担忧。该分析表明，与向北传播的ISO相关的降水异常强度的增加可能会加剧活跃的季风期，潜在地引发极端降雨事件。此外，由于海气耦合和反馈减弱，预计孟加拉湾上空这些向北传播的ISO的相位速度将加快。

这种加速减少了降水带的西北-东南倾斜，改变了ISO的空间结构。同时，环流-降水反馈的增强和印度洋的变暖将提高季风ISO的相速度，导致更频繁的活动期。这项研究强调了区域海洋-大气反馈在塑造未来ISO特征方面的关键作用，强调了在气候变暖背景下提高对这些变化的理解和预测的迫切需要。

附：英文原文

Title: Robust increase in Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability in the warmer climate

Author: Gopinadh Konda, Jasti Chowdary, C. Gnanaseelan, June-Yi Lee, Anant Parekh, Naresh Vissa, Phani Murali Krishna

Issue&Volume: 2025-09-01

Abstract: Despite its significant societal and scientific importance, projected changes in the characteristics of Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISOs) associated with Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) under increased greenhouse gas concentrations remain largely unexplored. This study utilizes downscaled and bias-corrected historical simulations and projections from 17 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to investigate the future evolution of ISOs. Our findings reveal a twofold increase in ISO variability over India in the far future under the very high emissions scenario, raising critical concerns about its adverse socioeconomic impacts. Our analysis suggests that the increased magnitude of precipitation anomalies associated with northward propagating ISOs may intensify active monsoon spells, potentially triggering extreme rainfall events. Additionally, the phase speed of these northward-propagating ISOs over the Bay of Bengal is projected to accelerate due to weakened air-sea coupling and feedback. This acceleration reduces the northwest-southeast tilt of the precipitation band, altering the spatial structure of the ISOs. Concurrently, the strengthening of circulation-precipitation feedback and warming of the Indian Ocean are projected to enhance the phase speed of monsoon ISOs, leading to more frequent active spells. This study underscores the critical role of regional ocean-atmosphere feedback in shaping future ISO characteristics, highlighting the urgent need for improved understanding and prediction of these changes in the context of a warming climate.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-025-5031-3

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-025-5031-3viewType=HTML