近日，清华大学张强团队揭示全球变暖加剧了野火造成的健康负担，重塑了不平等。该项研究成果发表在2025年9月18日出版的《自然》上。

全球变暖加剧了野火，加剧了温室气体和污染物的排放。然而，全球预测仍然不完整，阻碍了在不确定的未来变暖中有效的政策干预。

研究组开发了一个可解释的机器学习框架来预测全球燃烧面积和野火排放。该框架考虑了未来气候变化对火灾活动的影响，并量化了相关的过早死亡和火灾引起的颗粒物（PM_2.5）的辐射强迫。结果表明，从2010-2014年到2095-2099年，在共享社会经济路径（SSP） 2-4.5下，预计碳排放量将增加23%。

火灾相关气溶胶的增加使北纬60°以北地区的冷却效应减少0.06 W m^-2。预测显示野火烟雾导致的过早死亡人数将激增，在2095-2099年间达到年均140万（95%置信区间：66-225万），约为当前水平的6倍。受排放变化和人口老龄化驱动，非洲预计将遭遇最严重的火灾相关死亡人数增长（11倍）。在北半球中纬度地区野火发生频率上升的背景下，欧洲和美国在SSP2-4.5情景下将出现1-2倍的增长。总体而言，健康负担将在不同发展水平国家间呈现比当前更均匀的分布态势，这凸显出协调应对行动的必要性。

附：英文原文

Title: Global warming amplifies wildfire health burden and reshapes inequality

Author: Zhao, Junri, Zheng, Bo, Ciais, Philippe, Chen, Yang, Gasser, Thomas, Canadell, Josep G., Zhang, Longyi, Zhang, Qiang

Issue&Volume: 2025-09-18

Abstract: Global warming intensifies wildfires and exacerbates greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions1. However, global projections remain incomplete, hindering effective policy interventions amid uncertain warming futures2. Here, we developed an interpretable machine learning framework to project global burned areas and wildfire emissions. This framework accounts for the impacts of future climate change on fire activity and quantifies associated premature deaths and radiative forcing from fire-induced particulate matter (PM2.5). Here we show that from 2010–2014 to 2095–2099, fire carbon emissions are projected to increase by 23% under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5. Increased fire-related aerosols reduce the 0.06 W m2 cooling effect north of 60°N. Projections show a surge in premature deaths from wildfire smoke, reaching 1.40 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.66–2.25) million annually during 2095–2099, roughly 6 times higher than current levels. Africa is projected to experience the greatest rise in fire-related deaths (11-fold), driven by emission changes and an aging population. Europe and the U.S. would experience a 1–2-fold increase under SSP2-4.5, linked to rising fire occurrences in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere. Overall, the health burden would become more evenly distributed across nations of differing development levels than present patterns, underscoring the need for coordinated efforts.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09612-9

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09612-9