了一种新的方法，通过将群落水平动态与植物基因组编码的种群水平模式联系起来，在年代际时间尺度上模拟种群波动。利用在单一时间点采集的基因组样本来估算温带山地森林的当代有效种群规模，课题组准确地预测了三个普查主题的波动。他们的方法促进了基因组人口学的主题，以参数化生态学中的多物种群落模型，并表明种群基因组数据可以为生态动态提供准确的预测。
研究人员表示，物种种群大小随时间而波动，这些时间动态在控制生物多样性的维持方面起着关键作用。虽然已经开发了建模方法来表征物种丰度的波动，但从头开始参数化这些模型所需的数据是大量的。
附：英文原文
Title: Genomic demography predicts community dynamics in a temperate montane forest
Author: James P. O’Dwyer, James A. Lutz, Tyler Schappe, Dana Alegre, Andrew N. Black, Niklaus J. Grünwald, F. Andrew Jones
Issue&Volume: 2025-09-18
Abstract: Species population sizes fluctuate over time, and these temporal dynamics play a key role in governing the maintenance of biodiversity. Although modeling approaches have been developed to characterize fluctuations in species abundances, the data required to parameterize these models from scratch are substantial. Here we introduce a new approach to modeling population fluctuations on decadal timescales by relating community-level dynamics to population-level patterns encoded in plant genomes. Using genomic samples taken at a single time point to generate contemporary effective population size estimates in a temperate montane forest, we accurately predict fluctuations across three censuses. Our approach facilitates the use of genomic demography to parameterize multispecies community models in ecology and shows that population genomic data can provide accurate predictions for ecological dynamics.
DOI: adu6396
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adu6396