近日，武汉大学刘殿锋团队研究了社会经济发展和气候变化对汉水流域生态系统服务相互作用的稳定/不稳定影响评估。这一研究成果发表在2025年9月16日出版的《中国地理科学》杂志上。

生态系统服务之间的相互作用在空间上是异质的，受到社会经济发展和气候变化的稳定（单向）和不稳定（环境依赖）影响。这些复杂性对空间适应性生态系统管理提出了重大挑战。生态系统服务包（ESB）作为ESs的重复组合，提供了一个有价值的框架来捕获此类交互。

研究组提出了一个综合分析框架，该框架结合了K-means分类、地理检测器（GD）模型以及地理和时间加权回归（GTWR）模型，以评估社会经济和气候驱动因素如何跨空间和时间影响ESB。以中国中部地区汉水流域为例，量化了2000~2020年的生态系统动态，识别了生态系统的稳定性和不稳定性。结果表明：固碳（CS）、产水（WY）和景观美学（AL）分别增加了32.80%、9.00%和7.34%，土壤保持（SR）和食物供应（FS）分别下降了8.38%和5.36%；生态脆弱束（EFB）、农业生产束（APB）、供水束（WSB）、森林生态束（FEB）和生态涵养束（ECB）是5个不同的生态稳定束。其中FEB占HRB的比重扩大到35.75%以上，APB下降幅度最大，为28.64%。

土地利用强度（LUI）是影响中小企业空间异质性的主要驱动因素，多因素间的协同作用和非线性相互作用随着时间的推移不断放大其影响。值得注意的是，年降水量（AP）是唯一稳定的流域尺度驱动因素，持续提高ES效能，而国内生产总值（GDP）和归一化植被指数（NDVI）在不同束间具有稳定的空间差异效应。该发现强调了区分稳定/不稳定驱动效应对ES动力学的重要性，为区域适应性生态系统治理提供了信息。提出的框架为生态系统相互作用提供了有价值的见解，确定了空间优先事项，并支持平衡生态保护与社会经济发展的政策干预。

附：英文原文

Title: Assessing Stable/Unstable Effects of Socio-economic Development and Climate Change on Ecosystem Service Interactions in the Hanshui River Basin, China

Author: Zhang, Bowen, Liu, Dianfeng, Zheng, Liang, Wang, Ying, Li, Na

Issue&Volume: 2025-09-16

Abstract: Interactions among ecosystem services (ESs) are spatially heterogeneous, shaped by both stable (unidirectional) and unstable (context-dependent) influences of socio-economic development and climate change. These complexities pose significant challenges for spatially adaptive ecosystem management. Ecosystem service bundles (ESBs), as recurring combinations of ESs, offer a valuable framework to capture such interactions. Here, we proposed an integrated analytical framework that combines K-means clustering, the geographical detector (GD) model, and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) models to evaluate how socio-economic and climatic drivers influence ESBs across space and time. Using Hanshui River Basin (HRB) in central China as a case study, we quantified ES dynamics from 2000 to 2020, identified ESBs and stable and unstable effects of multiple drivers. The results showed that carbon sequestration (CS), water yield (WY), and aesthetic landscape (AL) increased by 32.80%, 9.00%, and 7.34%, respectively, while soil retention (SR) and food supply (FS) declined by 8.38% and 5.36%. Five distinct ESBs were identified, namely ecologically fragile bundle (EFB), agricultural production bundle (APB), water supply bundle (WSB), forest ecological bundle (FEB), and ecological conservation bundle (ECB). Among these, FEB expanded to more than 35.75% of the HRB, and APB exhibited the sharpest decline (28.64%). Land use intensity (LUI) was the primary driver of the spatial heterogeneity of ESBs, while synergistic and nonlinear interactions among multiple factors increasingly amplified their effects over time. Notably, annual precipitation (AP) emerged as the only stable basin-scale driver, consistently enhancing ES performance, while gross domestic product (GDP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) had stable yet spatially differentiated effects across bundles. Our findings highlight the significance of distinguishing stable/unstable driver effects on ES dynamics to inform regionally adaptive ecosystem governance. The proposed framework provides valuable insights into ES interactions, identify spatial priorities, and support policy interventions that balance ecological conservation with socio-economic development.

DOI: 10.1007/s11769-025-1556-8

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-025-1556-8