近日，瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院Yann Quilcaille团队研究了热浪对碳巨头排放的系统性归因。2025年9月10日，《自然》杂志发表了这一成果。

极端事件归因评估了气候变化如何影响极端气候，但通常侧重于单一事件。此外，这些归因很少量化人为因素对这些事件的影响程度。

研究组表明气候变化使2000~2023年间报告的213次历史热浪更有可能发生，也更强烈，180家碳巨头（化石燃料和水泥生产商）中的每一家都对此做出了重大贡献。这项工作依赖于扩展一个完善的基于事件的框架。由于1850~1900年以来的全球变暖，2000~2009年间热浪的中位数增加了约20倍，2010~2019年间增加了约200倍。总而言之，如果没有气候变化，这些事件中的四分之一实际上不可能发生。

自1850~1900年以来，碳巨头的排放量占热浪强度增加的一半。根据碳巨头的不同，其各自的贡献高到足以引发16-53次的热浪，这在工业化前的气候中几乎是不可能的。因此，研究组确定气候变化增加了对热浪的影响，所有碳巨头，即使是较小的碳工业，都对热浪的发生做出了重大贡献。该结果有助于填补证据空白，建立历史极端气候的问责制。

附：英文原文

Title: Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors

Author: Quilcaille, Yann, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Schumacher, Dominik L., Gasser, Thomas, Heede, Richard, Heri, Corina, Lejeune, Quentin, Nath, Shruti, Naveau, Philippe, Thiery, Wim, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Seneviratne, Sonia I.

Issue&Volume: 2025-09-10

Abstract: Extreme event attribution assesses how climate change affected climate extremes, but typically focuses on single events1,2,3,4. Furthermore, these attributions rarely quantify the extent to which anthropogenic actors have contributed to these events5,6. Here we show that climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000–2023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed. This work relies on the expansion of a well-established event-based framework1. Owing to global warming since 1850–1900, the median of the heatwaves during 2000–2009 became about 20 times more likely, and about 200 times more likely during 2010–2019. Overall, one-quarter of these events were virtually impossible without climate change. The emissions of the carbon majors contribute to half the increase in heatwave intensity since 1850–1900. Depending on the carbon major, their individual contribution is high enough to enable the occurrence of 16–53 heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible in a preindustrial climate. We, therefore, establish that the influence of climate change on heatwaves has increased, and that all carbon majors, even the smaller ones, contributed substantially to the occurrence of heatwaves. Our results contribute to filling the evidentiary gap to establish accountability of historical climate extremes7,8.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09450-9

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09450-9