近日，中山大学Naiming Yuan团队研究了黄河流域极端降水事件的全球遥相关。2025年8月20日出版的《大气科学进展》杂志发表了这项成果。

寒带夏季，黄河中下游地区极端降水事件频繁发生。最近的观测表明，ERE在较长的空间距离上表现出远相关模式。

研究组采用事件同步（ES）方法结合复杂网络（CN）理论，研究了YRB中ERE的遥相关。从区域到全球尺度上，长江三角洲的生态环境与其他区域具有显著的同步性。此外，与低分辨率模型相比，高分辨率CMIP6模型在捕获这些特征方面通常表现出更好的技能。进一步的研究表明，空间同步模式表现出明显的时间尺度依赖性。结果发现了YRB和欧洲之间显著的ERE同步，其中YRB落后于东欧3-5天，西欧5-7天，其中Rossby波传播发挥了关键作用。

来自欧洲的波列沿着欧亚急流向下游传播，在YRB上空诱发异常环流，增强垂直上升运动和水汽输送，最终触发厄尔尼诺现象。观测到两种不同的波列：一种与东欧-YRB同步有关，发生在中纬度地区；另一个与西欧-YRB同步有关，位于高纬度地区。值得注意的是，17.5%的东欧-YRB同步案例和17.0%的西欧-YRB重叠案例。定量分析表明，东（西）欧与YRB的同步事件约占YRB的28%（30%）。这些发现对于更好地理解ERE机制至关重要，为YRB中ERE的预测和预警能力提供指导。

附：英文原文

Title: Global Teleconnections of Extreme Rainfall Events in the Yellow River Basin

Author: Lin Cai, Naiming Yuan, Niklas Boers, Juergen Kurths

Issue&Volume: 2025-08-20

Abstract: Extreme rainfall events (EREs) frequently hit the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River basin (YRB) during boreal summer. Recent observations have indicated that EREs exhibit teleconnection patterns across long spatial distances. This study investigated ERE teleconnections in the YRB using the Event Synchronization (ES) method in combination with Complex Networks (CN) theory. EREs in the YRB are significantly synchronized with other regions from regional to global scales. Additionally, high-resolution CMIP6 models in general show better skills in capturing these characteristics compared to low-resolution models. A further examination shows that the spatial synchronization patterns exhibiting pronounced time-scale dependence. Significant ERE synchronizations between the YRB and Europe were uncovered, where the YRB lags Eastern Europe by 3-5 days and Western Europe by 5-7 days, with Rossby wave propagation playing a key role. Wave trains from Europe propagate downstream along the Eurasian jet, inducing anomalous circulations over the YRB that enhance vertical upward motion and moisture transport, ultimately triggering EREs. Two distinct wave trains are observed: one is associated with Eastern Europe-YRB synchronization, occurring in the mid-latitude region; the other one is linked to Western Europe-YRB synchronization, positioned at higher latitudes. Notably, 17.5% of Eastern Europe-YRB synchronization cases and 17.0% of Western Europe-YRB cases overlap. Quantitative analysis indicates that the synchronized events between Eastern (Western) Europe and the YRB account for roughly 28% (30%) of EREs in the YRB. These findings are critical for better understanding ERE mechanisms, offering guidance for forecasting and early warning capabilities for EREs in the YRB.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-025-5117-y

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-025-5117-y