近日，中国科学院空天信息研究所吴炳方团队利用大地球数据和水-能源-粮食-环境关联方法评估了赞比西河流域农业和水电用水轨迹。相关论文于2025年8月18日发表在《中国地理科学》杂志上。

鉴于非洲在能源、粮食和环境方面对水资源的竞争加剧，必须实施健全的流域或区域可持续发展综合计划。赞比西河流域（ZRB）是世界上最不发达的流域之一，正在大力开发水电和灌溉基础设施。

研究组提出了一个框架，利用大地球数据方法获得的数据来评估农业和水电开发情景下不同的水热轨迹。根据当前规划、全球平均水平和高水平，分别设定了未来3种增灌和开发水电建设情景。采用空间分析方法，以灌溉扩建和水库建设前后的平均蒸散发（ET）差异为主题，估算水热变化轨迹。

结果表明，ZRB的总有效阻力为111.8 km³。由于灌溉和水库建设，2017年的年额外用水量估计分别为0.9和14.2立方公里。通过对水-能-粮-环境（WEFE）的分析，研究团队发现，在不导致环境退化的情况下，ZRB的水资源开发边界可以支持灌溉比例和水坝密度分别增加到全球平均水平的20%和0.56/10⁴ km²。拟议的水资源评估范式有可能赋予ZRB巨大的能力，以支持实现相关的可持续发展目标（SDGs）。

附：英文原文

Title: Water Use Trajectories in Agriculture and Hydropower in Zambezi River Basin: Assessing with Big Earth Data and Water-energy-food-environment Nexus Approach

Author: Tian, Fuyou, Zeng, Hongwei, Wu, Bingfang, Zhang, Miao, Zhu, Weiwei, Phiri, Elijah, Mashonjowa, Emmanuel

Issue&Volume: 2025-08-18

Abstract: Given the heightened competition for water in energy, food, and the environment in Africa, it is essential to implement sound integrated plans for basin or regional sustainable development. Zambezi River Basin (ZRB), one of the least developed basins in the world, is under development with great ambition for hydropower and irrigation infrastructure. Here, we proposed a framework to assess different water usage trajectories for agricultural and hydropower development scenarios with data derived from big earth data method. Three future scenarios were set for irrigaiton expansion and development hydropower construction according to current plan, global average and high level, respectively. Using spatial analysis methods, average evapotranspiration (ET) difference before and after irrigation expansion and reservoir construction was used to estimate water usage trajectories. Results show that the total available water resource for ZRB is estimated as 111.8 km3. Due to irrigation and reservoirs construction, additional annual water consumption is estimated to be 0.9 and 14.2 km3 for 2017, respectively. By analyzing the water-energy-food-environment (WEFE) nexus given water availability constraints, we found that the water development boundary in the ZRB could support increases in both irrigation proportion and dam density to global average levels of 20% and 0.56/104 km2, respectively, without degrading the environment. The proposed paradigm for assessing water resources has the potential to endow the ZRB with significant capacity to support the achievement of relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

DOI: 10.1007/s11769-025-1548-8

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-025-1548-8