近日，美国雪城大学David Fastovich团队研究了跨时间尺度植被对气候的耦合、解耦和突变响应。2025年7月3日，《科学》杂志发表了这一成果。

气候和生态系统动态随时间尺度的变化而变化，但气候驱动的植被动态研究主要集中在单一时间尺度上。

研究组开发了一种基于光谱分析的方法，提供了植被跟踪气候变化的时间尺度的详细估计，从10¹年到10⁵年。研究组报告了植被和气候的动态相似性，甚至在百年频率(149^-1到18012^-1/年，即每149到18,012年一个周期)。植被周转率的断点(797^-1/年)匹配随机和自相关气候过程之间的断点，表明生态动力学受这些频率的气候控制。千禧年频率(4650^-1/年)突出了对气候变化突然响应的风险，而频率>149^-1/年可能表明人为气候变化对生态系统功能和生物多样性的长期影响。

附：英文原文

Title: Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales

Author: David Fastovich, Stephen R. Meyers, Erin E. Saupe, John W. Williams, Maria Dornelas, Elizabeth M. Dowding, Seth Finnegan, Huai-Hsuan M. Huang, Lukas Jonkers, Wolfgang Kiessling, ádám T. Kocsis, Qijian Li, Lee Hsiang Liow, Lin Na, Amelia M. Penny, Kate Pippenger, Johan Renaudie, Marina C. Rillo, Jansen Smith, Manuel J. Steinbauer, Mauro Sugawara, Adam Tomaovych, Moriaki Yasuhara, Pincelli M. Hull

Issue&Volume: 2025-07-03

Abstract: Climate and ecosystem dynamics vary across timescales, but research into climate-driven vegetation dynamics usually focuses on singular timescales. We developed a spectral analysis–based approach that provides detailed estimates of the timescales at which vegetation tracks climate change, from 101 to 105 years. We report dynamic similarity of vegetation and climate even at centennial frequencies (1491 to 18,0121 year1, that is, one cycle per 149 to 18,012 years). A breakpoint in vegetation turnover (7971 year1) matches a breakpoint between stochastic and autocorrelated climate processes, suggesting that ecological dynamics are governed by climate across these frequencies. Heightened vegetation turnover at millennial frequencies (46501 year1) highlights the risk of abrupt responses to climate change, whereas vegetation-climate decoupling at frequencies >1491 year1 may indicate long-lasting consequences of anthropogenic climate change for ecosystem function and biodiversity.

DOI: adr6700

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adr6700