美国加州大学欧文分校Michael J. Prather团队揭示了航空对气候影响的权衡有利于非二氧化碳缓解。2025年7月2日，《自然》杂志发表了这一成果。

民航的气候评估一直对主要的气候强迫因素进行量化：（1）二氧化碳排放，（2）氮氧化物（NO + NO₂）排放和（3）持久性尾迹。这三个分量都施加了正辐射强迫（RF），并导致了类似幅度的气候变暖。航空界正积极寻求通过先进的发动机技术、更可持续的航空燃料和最佳航线计划来减少其气候足迹。这些方法通常涉及二氧化碳与氮氧化物或尾迹（非二氧化碳）的权衡，例如多燃烧1%的燃料以将尾迹射频降低4%。 

研究组表明，从射频组件的不确定性中得出的气候权衡风险曲线可以给出特定权衡比率产生气候效益的概率。对于每个组件，研究组计算由1得出的积分有效射频 飞行年份：每项活动的全球变暖（GWA）。GWA（非二氧化碳）与GWA（二氧化碳）比率的互补累积概率分布导致气候权衡风险曲线，该曲线给出了积极气候结果的可能性，这是二氧化碳与二氧化碳权衡比率的函数，因为产品GWA × 两者的权衡应该是一样的。研究组发现，在100年的时间范围内，上述1:4的比例有可能（67%）缓解气候变化，这有利于比这更小的建议的非二氧化碳减缓措施。

附：英文原文

Title: Trade-offs in aviation impacts on climate favour non-CO2 mitigation

Author: Prather, Michael J., Gettelman, Andrew, Penner, Joyce E.

Issue&Volume: 2025-07-02

Abstract: Climate assessments of civil aviation1,2 have consistently quantified the dominant climate-forcing components: (1) CO2 emissions, (2) NOx (NO+NO2) emissions and (3) persistent contrails. All three components exert a positive radiative forcing (RF) and lead to climate warming of similar magnitudes. The aviation community is actively seeking to reduce its climate footprint through advanced engine technologies, more sustainable aviation fuel and optimal routing plans3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12. These approaches usually involve a trade-off of CO2 against NOx or contrails (non-CO2), such as burning 1% more fuel to decrease contrail RF by 4%. Here, we show that a climate-trade-off risk curve derived from uncertainties in the RF components2,13,14,15,16 can give the probability that a specified trade-off ratio will produce a climate benefit. For each component, we calculate the integrated effective RF resulting from 1year of flights: global warming per activity (GWA). The complementary cumulative probability distribution of the GWA(non-CO2) to GWA(CO2) ratio results in a climate-trade-off risk curve giving the likelihood of a positive climate outcome as a function of the trade-off-CO2 to trade-off-non-CO2 ratio, because the product, GWA×trade-off, should be the same for both. We find a likely (67%) chance of climate mitigation on a 100-year time horizon for the above suggested ratio of 1:4, favouring proposed non-CO2 mitigation efforts3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 with ratios smaller than this.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09198-2

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09198-2