近日，南京信息工程大学Xu, Rongrong团队揭示印度洋迅速变暖导致中国南方汛前极端降雨更加频繁。相关论文于2025年7月23日发表在《科学通报》杂志上。

2024年，中国南方在洪水前季节（4 - 6月）遭遇了最严重的洪水，这是东亚第一个主要降雨季节，具有相当大的社会经济后果。这种极端的洪水是由印度洋前所未有的变暖造成的，而温和的厄尔尼诺现象正在减弱。在太平洋的贡献很弱。令人担忧的是，近几十年来，类似的汛前洪水事件在中国南方变得越来越频繁，给当地社区带来了意想不到的风险。

研究组表明，近年来印度洋快速变暖增强了局部对流效率，导致洪水前强降雨更加频繁。随着全球变暖，印度洋的海面温度持续上升，了解它们在塑造区域极端天气模式方面的作用，对未来的气候适应和灾害管理变得越来越重要。

附：英文原文

Title: Rapid Indian Ocean warming fuels more frequent extreme pre-flood season rainfall over southern China

Author: Hou, Ruiqin, Zhang, Wenjun, Hu, Suqiong, Xu, Rongrong

Issue&Volume: 2025-07-23

Abstract: In 2024, southern China faced its worst flooding during the pre-flood season (April-June), the first major rainfall season in East Asia with considerable socioeconomic consequences. This extreme flooding is fueled by the unprecedented warming in the Indian Ocean, with a decaying moderate El Nio in the Pacific contributing weakly. Alarmingly, similar pre-flood season flooding events have become increasingly frequent in southern China over recent decades, posing unexpected risks to local communities. We demonstrate that the recent rapid Indian Ocean warming enhances local convection efficiency, leading to more frequent intense pre-flood season rainfall. As sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean continues to rise in a warming world, it becomes increasingly crucial to understand their role in shaping regional extreme weather patterns for future climate adaptation and disaster management.

DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwaf298

Source: https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaf298/8211041searchresult=1