近日，美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校Larry Di Girolamo团队研究了云运动矢量探测大气环流的年代际变化。2025年7月9日出版的《自然》杂志发表了这项成果。

不断变化的大气环流改变了全球天气模式及其极端情况，深刻影响着人类社会和生态系统。以大气再分析和气候模式资料为主题的研究表明，近几十年来环流变化多样，但在量级甚至方向上都存在差异，强调迫切需要独立的气候质量测量进行验证。

研究组展示了过去二十年来对流层环流的统计显著变化，主题是卫星观测到的，来自多角度成像光谱仪（MISR）的高度分辨云运动矢量。在中纬度地区，对流层上层云的运动速度增加了大约4立方米/年。这种加速主要是由于经向气流的加强，可能表明更多的极地风暴路径或增强的温带气旋。北半球和南半球热带向极地移动的速率分别为0.42±0.22°和0.02±0.14°纬/10年。对应的极锋移动速率分别为0.37°±0.31°和0.31°±0.21°纬/10年。

研究组还表明，广泛主题的ERA5再分析风次采样与MISR的气候学值和趋势吻合较好，但表明对流层上层可能存在ERA5偏差。这些基于MISR的观测为改进再分析和气候模式提供了关键的基准，以提高他们对气候变化对云和大气环流影响的理解。

附：英文原文

Title: Decadal changes in atmospheric circulation detected in cloud motion vectors

Author: Di Girolamo, Larry, Zhao, Guangyu, Zhang, Gan, Wang, Zhuo, Loveridge, Jesse, Mitra, Arka

Issue&Volume: 2025-07-09

Abstract: Changing atmospheric circulations shift global weather patterns and their extremes, profoundly affecting human societies and ecosystems. Studies using atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 indicate diverse circulation changes in recent decades but show discrepancies in magnitude and even direction, underscoring the urgent need for validation with independent, climate-quality measurements3. Here we show statistically significant changes in tropospheric circulation over the past two decades using satellite-observed, height-resolved cloud motion vectors from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR)10,11. Upper tropospheric cloud motion speeds in the mid-latitudes have increased by up to about 4ms1decade1. This acceleration is primarily because of the strengthening of meridional flow, potentially indicating more poleward storm tracks or intensified extratropical cyclones. The Northern and Southern Hemisphere tropics shifted poleward at rates of 0.42±0.22 and 0.02±0.14°latitudedecade1 (95% confidence interval), respectively, whereas the corresponding polar fronts shifted at rates of 0.37±0.31 and 0.31±0.21° latitudedecade1. We also show that the widely used ERA5 (ref.12) reanalysis winds subsampled to the MISR are in good agreement with the climatological values and trends of the MISR but indicate probable ERA5 biases in the upper troposphere. These MISR-based observations provide critical benchmarks for refining reanalysis and climate models to advance our understanding of climate change impacts on cloud and atmospheric circulations.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09242-1

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09242-1