湖南农业大学谭雪兰团队近日研究了湖南省县域农业非CO₂温室气体排放及情景模拟。2025年6月4日出版的《中国地理科学》杂志发表了这项成果。

在碳达峰和碳中和时代背景下，明确农业源非CO₂温室气体的排放模式，对我国实施温室气体减排政策具有现实意义。采用政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）系数法计算了2010年至2020年中国湖南省122个县农业源的非二氧化碳温室气体排放量，并分析了排放强度的时空演变特征。回归对人口、富裕和技术的随机影响（STRIPAT）模型预测了2030年至2050年各种情景下县级农业非二氧化碳温室气体排放的未来演变。 

结果表明，研究区域内农业来源的非二氧化碳温室气体排放总体下降，75.41%的县的排放量有所减少。从地理上讲，洞庭湖区和衡阳中部的排放量较高。单位农业增加值排放强度和单位农业用地面积排放强度总体呈下降趋势。从空间上看，湘南少数县（市、区）单位耕地面积的排放强度仍然相对较高。

通过预测农业来源的非二氧化碳温室气体排放量，大多数县（市和区）的排放量逐渐下降，这表明农业生产在未来有可能减少排放，同时也面临着一定的减排压力。建议湖南省制定考虑区域发展差异的农业碳减排政策。这将为今后全国农业碳减排研究提供参考。

附：英文原文

Title: County-level Agricultural Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Scenario Simulation in Hunan Province, China

Author: Li, Jialong, Liu, Yue, Tan, Xuelan, Zhu, Jingjing

Issue&Volume: 2025-06-03

Abstract: In the context of the era of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, clarifying the emission patterns of non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) from agricultural sources is of practical significance to China’s implementation of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) coefficient method was used to calculate non-CO2 GHG emissions from agricultural sources in 122 counties in Hunan Province, China, from 2010 to 2020, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of emission intensity were analyzed. The Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STRIPAT) model forecasted the prospective evolution of non-CO2 GHG emissions from agricultural sources at the county level under various scenarios from 2030 to 2050. The results demonstrated a general decline in non-CO2 GHG emissions from agricultural sources within the study area, with 75.41% of counties exhibiting a reduction in emissions. Geographically, emissions were higher in the Dongting Lake area and central Hengyang. The emission intensity per unit of agricultural added value and the intensity per unit of agricultural land area showed an overall downward trend. Spatially, the emission intensity per unit of farmland area in a few counties (cities, districts) in southern Hunan was still relatively high. By forecasting the non-CO2 GHG emissions from agricultural sources, the majority of counties (cities and districts) demonstrated a gradual decline in emissions, suggesting that agricultural production had the potential to reduce emissions in the future, while also facing certain pressure to reduce emissions. It is recommended that Hunan Province formulate agricultural carbon emission reduction policies that take regional development differences into account. This would provide a reference for future agricultural carbon emission reduction research in the whole country.

DOI: 10.1007/s11769-025-1526-1

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-025-1526-1