比利时布鲁塞尔自由大学Luke Grant团队近日揭示全球出现了前所未有的极端气候终生暴露。相关论文发表在2025年5月7日出版的《自然》杂志上。

在人为气候变化的影响下，极端气候正在升级。然而，这如何转化为个人一生中前所未有的累积极端事件暴露尚不清楚。

研究组使用气候模型、影响模型和人口统计数据来预测在前工业化气候中，经历超过99.99%的极端气候累积暴露的人数。他们预计，根据目前的缓解政策，面临这种前所未有的热浪、作物歉收、河流洪水、干旱、野火和热带气旋的1960—2020年出生队列比例将至少翻一番；到2100年，全球变暖路径将比工业化前温度高出2.7℃。在升温1.5℃的路径下，2020年出生的人中有52%将经历前所未有的终生热浪。

如果到2100年全球变暖达到3.5℃，热浪的比例将上升到92%，农作物歉收的比例将上升到29%，河流洪水的比例将上升到14%。在社会经济脆弱性高的人群中，面临前所未有终生热浪的可能性要大得多。该研究结果呼吁大幅持续减少温室气体排放，以减轻气候变化给当前年轻一代带来的负担。

附：英文原文

Title: Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes

Author: Grant, Luke, Vanderkelen, Inne, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Fischer, Erich, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Thiery, Wim

Issue&Volume: 2025-05-07

Abstract: Climate extremes are escalating under anthropogenic climate change1. Yet, how this translates into unprecedented cumulative extreme event exposure in a person’s lifetime remains unclear. Here we use climate models, impact models and demographic data to project the number of people experiencing cumulative lifetime exposure to climate extremes above the 99.99th percentile of exposure expected in a pre-industrial climate. We project that the birth cohort fraction facing this unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves, crop failures, river floods, droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones will at least double from 1960 to 2020 under current mitigation policies aligned with a global warming pathway reaching 2.7°C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100. Under a 1.5°C pathway, 52% of people born in 2020 will experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves. If global warming reaches 3.5°C by 2100, this fraction rises to 92% for heatwaves, 29% for crop failures and 14% for river floods. The chance of facing unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves is substantially larger among population groups characterized by high socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Our results call for deep and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions to lower the burden of climate change on current young generations.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08907-1

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08907-1