中国科学院地理科学与自然资源研究所周成虎团队揭示了辐射强迫因21世纪初陆地反照率的增加而减少。相关论文于2025年5月28日发表在《自然》杂志上。

地表反照率极大地影响了地球吸收的能量。密集的人类活动和加速的气候变化在空间和时间尺度上改变了地表反照率，但在全球范围内，对土地利用或土地覆盖（LULC）和雪变化对地表反照度的影响的评估很少。因此，人们对近几十年来全球陆地表面反照率动态及其对气候系统的相应辐射强迫仍然知之甚少。 

研究组量化了2001~2020年期间积雪动态、LULC转换和非转换区域对反照率变化的单独和组合影响，并估计了它们引起的辐射强迫。我们发现，在过去的二十年里全球陆地表面反照率变化引起的负辐射强迫为-0.142（-0.158，-0.114）W m⁻²。全球无雪陆地表面反照率增加了2.2%（P<0.001），负辐射强迫为-0.164（-0.186，-0.138）W m⁻²（P < 0.001）。

这种负强迫的强度是雪动力学引起的正强迫的七倍，相当于2011年至2011年二氧化碳排放造成的59.9%。LULC非转换区反照率变化引起的全球辐射强迫是LULC转换的3.9至8.1倍。反照率变化引起的辐射强迫突显了陆地表面动力学在调节全球变暖中的重要作用。

附：英文原文

Title: Radiative forcing reduced by early twenty-first century increase in land albedo

Author: Hou, Zhengyang, Zhang, Liqiang, Peng, Jingjing, Forzieri, Giovanni, Jia, Aolin, Xiao, Zhiqiang, Qu, Ying, Lin, Jintai, Ji, Duoying, Zhu, Zidong, Yao, Xin, Peng, Shuwen, Zhao, Lanpu, Fan, Wenjie, Wu, Zhaocong, Geng, Hao, Wang, Qihao, Zhou, Chenghu, Liu, Suhong, Zhang, Liangpei

Issue&Volume: 2025-05-28

Abstract: Surface albedo greatly affects how much energy the Earth absorbs. Intensive human activities and accelerated climate change have altered surface albedo across spatial and temporal scales1,2,3, yet assessments of the effects of land use or land cover (LULC) and snow variations on land surface albedo are scarce at the global scale. As a result, the global land surface albedo dynamics over recent decades and their corresponding radiative forcing to the climate system remain poorly understood4,5,6,7,8,9. Here we quantify the individual and combined effects of snow cover dynamics, LULC conversions and non-conversion regions on albedo variations during 2001–2020 and estimate their induced radiative forcing. We show that the negative radiative forcing induced by the global land surface albedo change was 0.142 (0.158, 0.114)Wm2 over the past two decades. The global snow-free land surface albedo increased by 2.2% (P < 0.001), with a negative radiative forcing of 0.164 (0.186, 0.138)Wm2 (P<0.001). The magnitude of this negative forcing is sevenfold larger than the positive forcing induced by snow dynamics, and equivalent to 59.9% of that caused by CO2 emissions from 2011 to 201910. The global radiative forcing due to albedo changes in LULC non-conversion regions is 3.9 to 8.1 times greater than that from LULC conversions. The radiative forcing induced by albedo changes highlights the important role of land surface dynamics in modulating global warming.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08987-z

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08987-z