中国科学院大气物理研究所周天军团队近日揭示气溶胶减缓对全球季风区未来的水资源供应至关重要。相关论文于2025年5月21日发表在《科学通报》杂志上。

以降水量减去蒸发量（P-E）衡量的水资源可用性预计将在21世纪全球季风区增加。然而，尽管现有研究强调了温室气体浓度增加的影响，但人为气溶胶（AA）排放减少的贡献可能会被忽视。研究组利用SSP2-4.5情景下的单一强迫预测，阐明了温室气体和AA强迫对未来磷电子演化的指纹。结果发现，未来的P-E变化主要是由雨季的变化驱动的，亚非和美洲季风区域之间的趋势截然不同。预计温室气体浓度的上升将增加亚非季风区的P-E，同时减少美洲季风区的P−E。

相反，气溶胶的减少将推动从目前的普遍干旱向未来的湿润过渡，其贡献与亚非季风区的温室气体强迫相当。虽然温室气体增加和AA减少可以通过辐射变暖提高大气湿度，但不同的P−E反应来自温室气体强迫下有利于美国季风区干燥趋势的动态过程。相比之下，由于半球间热对比增强，在AA减少的情况下，季风环流的加强有助于亚非季风区的湿润趋势。该研究结果强调了在人口稠密的季风地区的气候风险评估中考虑气溶胶缓解的重要性。

附：英文原文

Title: Aerosol mitigation matters to future water availability in the global monsoon region

Author: Tianjun Zhou a b

Issue&Volume: 2025/05/21

Abstract: Water availability, as measured by precipitation minus evaporation (PE), is projected to increase in the 21st century across the global monsoon region. However, while the impacts of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are highlighted in existing studies, the contribution of reduced anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emissions is likely to be overlooked. Here, utilizing single-forcing projections under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, we elucidate the fingerprints of GHG and AA forcings on future PE evolution. We reveal that future PE changes are primarily driven by changes during the wet season, with contrasting trends between the Asian-African and American monsoon domains. The escalation of GHG concentrations is projected to increase PE over Asian–African monsoon domains while decreasing it over the American monsoon domains. Conversely, aerosol reductions will drive a transition from current widespread drying to future wetting, with contributions comparable to GHG forcing over the Asian-African monsoon domains. While GHG increases and AA reductions can elevate atmospheric moistening through radiative warming, the disparate PE responses arise from dynamic processes that favor drying trends in the American monsoon domains under GHG forcing. In contrast, strengthened monsoon circulations contribute to a wetting trend in the Asian-African monsoon domains under AA reductions, attributable to greater interhemispheric thermal contrast. Our findings highlight the importance of considering aerosol mitigation in climate risk assessments for densely populated monsoon regions.

DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2025.05.023

Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095927325005389