近日，荷兰乌得勒支大学Detlef P. van Vuuren团队研究了在地球范围内探索世界发展的途径。2025年5月14日出版的《自然》杂志发表了这项成果。

人类给环境造成的压力已经使地球的稳定处于危险之中。行星边界框架作为一种定义“人类安全操作空间”的方法，迄今为止主要用于突出当前普遍存在的不可持续的环境条件。然而，评估长期趋势的能力可以帮助他们探索各种政策决定的后果，并确定在地球边界内生活的途径。

研究组以全球环境评估综合模型为主题，预测到2050年在有或没有强有力的环境政策措施的情况下，9个地球边界中的8个的控制变量。结果表明，按照目前的趋势和政策，预计到2050年，除臭氧消耗外，所有地球边界的情况都将恶化。

有针对性的干预措施，如执行《巴黎气候协定》、转向更健康的饮食、改善食物质量以及以水和营养为主题的效率，可以有效地降低对地球边界的侵犯程度，引导人类走向更可持续的轨道（也就是说，如果这些干预措施能够基于社会和体制可行性考虑加以实施）。

然而，即使在这种情况下，包括气候变化、生物地球化学流动和生物多样性在内的几个地球边界仍将在2050年被突破，部分原因是惯性。这意味着需要更有效的政策措施，以确保该研究组在地球边界内生活得很好。

附：英文原文

Title: Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries

Author: van Vuuren, Detlef P., Doelman, Jonathan C., Schmidt Tagomori, Isabela, Beusen, Arthur H. W., Cornell, Sarah E., Rckstrom, Johan, Schipper, Aafke M., Stehfest, Elke, Ambrosio, Geanderson, van den Berg, Maarten, Bouwman, Lex, Daioglou, Vassilis, Harmsen, Mathijs, Lucas, Paul, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, van Zeist, Willem-Jan

Issue&Volume: 2025-05-14

Abstract: The pressures humanity has been placing on the environment have put Earth’s stability at risk. The planetary boundaries framework serves as a method to define a ‘safe operating space for humanity’1,2 and has so far been applied mostly to highlight the currently prevailing unsustainable environmental conditions. The ability to evaluate trends over time, however, can help us explore the consequences of alternative policy decisions and identify pathways for living within planetary boundaries3. Here we use the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment4 to project control variables for eight out of nine planetary boundaries under alternative scenarios to 2050, both with and without strong environmental policy measures. The results show that, with current trends and policies, the situation is projected to worsen to 2050 for all planetary boundaries, except for ozone depletion. Targeted interventions, such as implementing the Paris climate agreement, a shift to a healthier diet, improved food, and water- and nutrient-use efficiency, can effectively reduce the degree of transgression of the planetary boundaries, steering humanity towards a more sustainable trajectory (that is, if they can be implemented based on social and institutional feasibility considerations). However, even in this scenario, several planetary boundaries, including climate change, biogeochemical flows and biodiversity, will remain transgressed in 2050, partly as result of inertia. This means that more-effective policy measures will be needed to ensure we are living well within the planetary boundaries.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08928-w

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08928-w