中国科学院大气物理研究所周天军团队揭示了过去的暖期预示着未来南亚夏季风的到来。该研究于2025年5月14日发表在《自然》杂志上。

在未来，即使季风环流减弱，预计人口稠密的南亚地区的季风降雨也会增加。相比之下，过去的暖期以降雨增加和季风环流加强为特征，这对理解南亚夏季风对变暖的反应提出了挑战。

研究组展示了上新世中期、末次间冰期、全新世中期和未来情景中南亚夏季风的一致变化，其特征是季风降雨总体增加，孟加拉湾季风槽状环流减弱，阿拉伯海北部季风环流增强，这是由代理记录和气候模拟的汇编所揭示的。季风降水的增加在热力上受“富变富”模式下的大气湿度主导，在动力上受欧亚大陆西部和北非副热带陆地变暖加剧驱动的季风环流主导。

温暖气候中季风动力学的一致响应调和了过去的增强与未来的减弱，增强了对未来预测的信心。以过去信息为主题的基于物理的回归模式对南亚夏季风环流和降雨的进一步预测与气候模式预估结果非常吻合，在高排放情景下，空间相关系数约为0.8和0.7。这些发现强调了在古气候重建的支持下，过去的类似物在改善未来南亚夏季风预测方面的巨大潜力。

附：英文原文

Title: Past warm intervals inform the future South Asian summer monsoon

Author: He, Linqiang, Zhou, Tianjun, Guo, Zhun

Issue&Volume: 2025-05-14

Abstract: In the future, monsoon rainfall over densely populated South Asia is expected to increase, even as monsoon circulation weakens1,2,3. By contrast, past warm intervals were marked by both increased rainfall and a strengthening of monsoon circulation4,5,6, posing a challenge to understanding the response of the South Asian summer monsoon to warming. Here we show consistent South Asian summer monsoon changes in the mid-Pliocene, Last Interglacial, mid-Holocene and future scenarios, characterized by an overall increase in monsoon rainfall, a weakening of the monsoon trough-like circulation over the Bay of Bengal and a strengthening of the monsoon circulation over the northern Arabian Sea, as revealed by a compilation of proxy records and climate simulations. Increased monsoon rainfall is thermodynamically dominated by atmospheric moisture following the rich-get-richer paradigm, and dynamically dominated by the monsoon circulation driven by the enhanced land warming in subtropical western Eurasia and northern Africa. The coherent response of monsoon dynamics across warm climates reconciles past strengthening with future weakening, reinforcing confidence in future projections. Further prediction of South Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall by physics-based regression models using past information agrees well with climate model projections, with spatial correlation coefficients of approximately 0.8 and 0.7 under the high-emissions scenario. These findings underscore the promising potential of past analogues, bolstered by palaeoclimate reconstruction, in improving future South Asian summer monsoon projections.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08956-6

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08956-6