近日，瑞典隆德大学Zhengyao Lu团队发现全新世期间多年厄尔尼诺-南方涛动事件的频率增加。相关论文发表在2025年3月31日出版的《自然—地球科学》杂志上。
持续两年或两年以上（多年）的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件，无论是在暖期还是冷期，都相对罕见。与单年事件相比，它们会产生累积影响，并与全球长期的极端天气有关。
研究组将中太平洋化石珊瑚氧同位素重建与瞬态全新世全球气候模拟的多模型集成相结合，研究了全新世（约11700年前开始）期间多年的ENSO演变，当时全球气候相对稳定，主要由季节性日照驱动。结果发现，在过去的7000年里，在代理指标中，多年ENSO事件与单年ENSO事件的比率增加了5倍，这与较长的ENSO周期（从3.5年到4.1年）有关。
这种变化通过模型模拟的一个子集得到了定性验证，该模型模拟具有更真实的ENSO周期性表示。目前，热带东太平洋的温跃层较浅，上层海洋分层较强，导致多年ENSO事件更加频繁，ENSO期延长。ENSO持续时间对轨道强迫的敏感性表明，迫切需要尽量减少其他人为影响，这些影响可能会加速ENSO造成更持久损害的长期趋势。
附：英文原文
Title: Increased frequency of multi-year El Nio–Southern Oscillation events across the Holocene
Author: Lu, Zhengyao, Schultze, Anna, Carr, Matthieu, Brierley, Chris, Hopcroft, Peter O., Zhao, Debo, Zheng, Minjie, Braconnot, Pascale, Yin, Qiuzhen, Jungclaus, Johann H., Shi, Xiaoxu, Yang, Haijun, Zhang, Qiong
Issue&Volume: 2025-03-31
Abstract: El Nio–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, whether in warm or cold phases, that persist for two or more consecutive years (multi-year), are relatively rare. Compared with single-year events, they create cumulative impacts and are linked to extended periods of extreme weather worldwide. Here we combine central Pacific fossil coral oxygen isotope reconstructions with a multimodel ensemble of transient Holocene global climate simulations to investigate the multi-year ENSO evolution during the Holocene (beginning ~11,700years ago), when the global climate was relatively stable and driven mainly by seasonal insolation. We find that, over the past ~7,000years, in proxies the ratio of multi-year to single-year ENSO events increased by a factor of 5, associated with a longer ENSO period (from 3.5 to 4.1years). This change is verified qualitatively by a subset of model simulations with a more realistic representation of ENSO periodicity. More frequent multi-year ENSO events and prolonged ENSO periods are being caused by a shallower thermocline and stronger upper-ocean stratification in the Tropical Eastern Pacific in the present day. The sensitivity of the ENSO duration to orbital forcing signals the urgency of minimizing other anthropogenic influence that may accelerate this long-term trend towards more persistent ENSO damages.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01670-y
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01670-y