澳大利亚新南威尔士大学Shinichi Nakagawa研究小组近日取得一项新成果。经过不懈努力，他们的研究揭示了两栖动物对全球变暖的脆弱性。这一研究成果于2025年3月5日发表在国际顶尖学术期刊《自然》上。

在这里，小组采用了一种基于系统发育的数据输入方法来预测60%的两栖动物物种的耐热性，并评估了它们对热避难所中每日温度变化的脆弱性。课题组发现5203个物种中有104个（2%）目前在阴凉的陆地条件下暴露于过热事件。尽管考虑到耐热塑性，全球气温升高4°C将造成影响严重程度的阶梯式变化，使7.5%的物种超出其生理极限。

在南半球，热带物种遭遇不成比例的过热事件，而在北半球，非热带物种更容易受到影响。这些发现挑战了过热风险普遍存在纬度梯度的证据，并强调了在脆弱性评估中考虑气候变率的重要性。小组提供了保守的估计，假设进入阴凉的微环境。他们认为，全球变暖的影响可能会超过他们的预测。他们的小气候分析表明，植被和水体在热浪中对两栖动物起到了至关重要的缓冲作用。需要立即采取行动来保护和管理这些微栖息地的特征。

据介绍，两栖动物是最受威胁的脊椎动物，但它们对气温上升的适应能力仍然知之甚少。这主要是因为对热耐受性的认识在分类学和地理上存在偏见，从而影响了全球气候脆弱性评估。

附：英文原文

Title: Vulnerability of amphibians to global warming

Author: Pottier, Patrice, Kearney, Michael R., Wu, Nicholas C., Gunderson, Alex R., Rej, Julie E., Rivera-Villanueva, A. Nayelli, Pollo, Pietro, Burke, Samantha, Drobniak, Szymon M., Nakagawa, Shinichi

Issue&Volume: 2025-03-05

Abstract: Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates, yet their resilience to rising temperatures remains poorly understood1,2. This is primarily because knowledge of thermal tolerance is taxonomically and geographically biased3, compromising global climate vulnerability assessments. Here we used a phylogenetically informed data-imputation approach to predict the heat tolerance of 60% of amphibian species and assessed their vulnerability to daily temperature variations in thermal refugia. We found that 104 out of 5,203 species (2%) are currently exposed to overheating events in shaded terrestrial conditions. Despite accounting for heat-tolerance plasticity, a 4°C global temperature increase would create a step change in impact severity, pushing 7.5% of species beyond their physiological limits. In the Southern Hemisphere, tropical species encounter disproportionally more overheating events, while non-tropical species are more susceptible in the Northern Hemisphere. These findings challenge evidence for a general latitudinal gradient in overheating risk4,5,6 and underscore the importance of considering climatic variability in vulnerability assessments. We provide conservative estimates assuming access to cool shaded microenvironments. Thus, the impacts of global warming will probably exceed our projections. Our microclimate-explicit analyses demonstrate that vegetation and water bodies are critical in buffering amphibians during heat waves. Immediate action is needed to preserve and manage these microhabitat features.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08665-0

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08665-0