同济大学沈云中团队研究了2002年至2023年威尔克斯玛丽女王地南极冰盖和四个冰川盆地的时空质量变化率。相关论文于2025年3月19日发表在《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

为了准确评估南极冰盖（AIS）质量变化率及其时空特征，研究组使用改进的点质量模型方法，结合数据驱动的正则化矩阵和迭代确定的多个正则化参数，推导出了2002年4月至2023年12月的AIS质量变化序列。然后分析了AIS上质量变化率的时空特征，重点研究了东部AIS（EAIS）威尔克斯地玛丽女王地（WL-QML）地区的四个冰川盆地，即登曼、莫斯科、托滕和文森斯湾冰川盆地。

结果表明，AIS截至2020年2月对全球平均海平面上升的贡献峰值为5.99±0.43毫米，平均海平面上升了5.10±0.52毫米，随后是持续三年多的质量增加期，最终导致到2023年底，总海平面上升贡献为5.10±0.52毫米。此外，2011-2020年期间，AIS经历了大量的质量损失，损失率为142.06±56.12 Gt a⁻¹，主要是由于西部AIS和EAIS的WL-QML地区质量损失加剧。进一步的分析表明，2011-2020年期间，WL-QML地区四个冰川盆地的质量损失率比2002-2010年期间增加了47.64±8.14 Gt a⁻¹，质量损失的范围扩大到内陆。

值得注意的是，文森斯湾和登曼冰川盆地分别从物质平衡和积累过渡到强烈的物质损失。一项深入的调查显示，冰流量的增加和SMB（表面质量平衡）的减少分别对四个冰川盆地的质量损失加剧贡献了27.47%和72.53%。总体而言，该研究呈现了过去22年AIS的质量变化特征，突出了EAIS中四个重要冰川盆地的不稳定性，并为相关极地研究提供了宝贵的科学见解。

附：英文原文

Title: Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land

Author: Wei WANG, Yunzhong SHEN, Qiujie CHEN, Fengwei WANG, Yangkang YU

Issue&Volume: 2025/03/19

Abstract: To accurately evaluate the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass change rate and its spatiotemporal characteristics, we derive the AIS mass change series from April 2002 to December 2023 using an improved point-mass model approach with data-driven regularization matrices and iteratively determined multiple regularization parameters. Then, we analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the mass change rate over the AIS, focusing on four glacier basins in the Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Land (WL-QML) region of the East AIS (EAIS), namely the Denman, Moscow, Totten, and Vincennes Bay glacier basins. The results indicate that the AIS contribution to GMSL (global mean sea level) rise peaked at 5.99±0.43mm in February 2020, followed by a mass gain period lasting over three years, ultimately resulting in a total GMSL contribution of 5.10±0.52mm by the end of 2023. Moreover, the AIS experienced substantial mass loss during the 2011–2020 period, with a rate of 142.06±56.12Gta1, mainly due to intensified mass loss in the West AIS and the WL-QML region of the EAIS. Further analysis shows that the mass loss rate of the four glacier basins in the WL-QML region during the 2011–2020 period increased by 47.64±8.14Gta1 compared with the 2002–2010 period, with expanded areas of mass loss spreading inland. Notably, the Vincennes Bay and Denman glacier basins transitioned from mass balance and accumulation to intense mass loss, respectively. An in-depth investigation reveals that the increased ice discharge and decreased SMB (surface mass balance) contribute 27.47% and 72.53%, respectively, to the intensified mass loss of the four glacier basins. Overall, the study presents the mass change characteristics of the AIS over the past 22years, highlights the instability of four important glacier basins in the EAIS, and provides valuable scientific insights for related polar research.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-024-1517-1

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/SCES/doi/10.1007/s11430-024-1517-1