南京信息科技大学周波涛团队发现2000年以来北大西洋涛动对中国北方冬季降雪的影响增强。相关论文于2025年3月18日发表在《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

由于中国北方降雪对经济社会和人类生活的深远影响，了解该地区降雪变化背后的物理机制至关重要。研究组基于1961-2018年的观测和再分析数据，探讨了中国北方冬季降雪与北大西洋涛动（NAO）的关系。结果表明，两者关系在2000年左右经历了年代际变化。

在2000年至2018年期间，NAO与中国北方冬季降雪呈显著负相关。当NAO处于负相时，东亚副热带喷流和极地锋面喷流倾向于分别向北和向南移动，同时伴有对流层中下部从巴尔喀什湖到贝加尔湖的异常气旋环流。这种大气背景有利于中国北方降雪的增加，因为它增强了冷空气与目标地区潮湿气流的相互作用。

然而，在1981年至1999年期间，NAO与上述大气环流的关联似乎并不明显，从而降低了其与中国北方冬季降雪的关系。进一步的研究表明，NAO与上述大气环流之间联系的增强可能是由于NAO南部中心从前一时期向西位移到后一时期造成的。

附：英文原文

Title: Enhanced influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter snowfall in northern China since 2000

Author: Botao Zhou, Chuer Guo, Yuepeng Hu, Wenxin Xie, Bo Sun, Tingting Han, Ning Shi

Issue&Volume: 2025/03/18

Abstract: Because of the profound impacts of snowfall in northern China on the economy society and human lives, it is essential to understand the physical mechanisms behind the variability of snowfall in this region. Based on the observational and reanalysis data during 1961–2018, this study examines the relationship of winter snowfall over northern China with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results show that their relationship experiences an interdecadal change around 2000. During 2000–2018, the NAO is significantly and negatively correlated to winter snowfall in northern China. When the NAO is in the negative phase, the East Asian subtropical jet and polar front jet tend to move northward and southward, respectively, concomitant with an anomalous cyclonic circulation from Lake Balkhash to Lake Baikal in the middle and lower troposphere. Such an atmospheric background favors the increase of snowfall over northern China by empowering the interactions of cold air with moist airflows in the target region. However, during 1981–1999, the association of the NAO with the above atmospheric circulations seems inconspicuous, thereby reducing its relation to winter snowfall in northern China. Further investigation suggests that the enhancement of the connection between the NAO and aforementioned atmospheric circulations may result from the westward displacement of the NAO southern center from the former period to the latter period.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-024-1516-9

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/SCES/doi/10.1007/s11430-024-1516-9