西班牙高级科学调查委员会Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano团队发现地中海降水的高时间变异性不占主导地位。该项研究成果发表在2025年3月12日出版的《自然》杂志上。

最先进的气候模型预测地中海地区未来的降水量将大幅下降。支持这一观点的是，基于近几十年观测到的降水数据的几项研究表明，地中海降水量减少，一些研究将这一变化的很大一部分归因于人为影响。相反，某些研究人员强调，地中海降水表现出相当大的时空变化，这是由长期保持稳定的大气环流模式驱动的。这些相互矛盾的观点强调，鉴于该地区降水变化的深刻社会、经济和环境影响，有必要对其进行全面评估。

研究组表明，从1871年到2020年，地中海降水量基本保持稳定，尽管存在显著的几十年和年际变化。这一结论基于该地区最全面的数据集，包括27个国家的23000多个站点。虽然可以确定某些时期和次区域的趋势，但该研究结果将这些趋势主要归因于大气动力学，而大气动力学主要与内部变化有关。此外，该评估将观测到的降水趋势与耦合模型相互比较项目第6阶段的模型模拟相协调，两者都没有表明该地区过去的降水趋势。该研究结果的影响延伸到世界上突出的气候变化热点之一的环境、农业和水资源规划。

附：英文原文

Title: High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation

Author: Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Tramblay, Yves, Reig, Fergus, Gonzlez-Hidalgo, Jos C., Beguera, Santiago, Brunetti, Michele, Kalin, Ksenija Cindri, Patalen, Leonardo, Kri, Aleksandra, Lionello, Piero, Lima, Miguel M., Trigo, Ricardo M., El-Kenawy, Ahmed M., Eddenjal, Ali, Trkes, Murat, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Manara, Veronica, Maugeri, Maurizio, Badi, Wafae, Mathbout, Shifa, Bertalani, Renato, Bocheva, Lilia, Dabanli, Ismail, Dumitrescu, Alexandru, Dubuisson, Brigitte, Sahabi-Abed, Salah, Abdulla, Fayez, Fayad, Abbas, Hodzic, Sabina, Ivanov, Mirjana, Radevski, Ivan, Pea-Angulo, Dhais, Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge, Domnguez-Castro, Fernando, Gimeno-Sotelo, Luis, Garca-Herrera, Ricardo, Franquesa, Mag, Halifa-Marn, Amar, Adell-Michavila, Maria, Noguera, Ivan, Barriopedro, David, Garrido-Perez, Jose M., Azorin-Molina, Cesar, Andres-Martin, Miguel, Gimeno, Luis, Nieto, Raquel, Llasat, Maria Carmen, Markonis, Yannis, Selmi, Rabeb, Ben Rached, Soumaya, Radovanovi, Slavica, Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel, Ribes, Aurlien, Saidi, Mohamed Elmehdi, Bataineh, Siham, El Khalki, El Mahdi, Robaa, Sayed, Boucetta, Amina, Alsafadi, Karam, Mamassis, Nikos, Mohammed, Safwan, Fernndez-Duque, Beatriz, Cheval, Sorin, Moutia, Sara

Issue&Volume: 2025-03-12

Abstract: State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2,3,4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots10.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08576-6