近日，瑞士伯尔尼大学Stefan Brönnimann研究组揭示了由大西洋急流和反复出现的天气模式驱动的欧洲过去极端水文气候。2025年2月27日出版的《自然—地球科学》杂志发表了这项成果。
大西洋-欧洲地区上空的急流与欧洲的天气和气候有关。它产生极端温度，将水分和洪水推动的天气系统引向欧洲，或促进大气块的发展，这可能会导致干旱。持续的气候变化可能会改变喷气式飞机的特性，影响极端天气。然而，人们对急流过去的年际到年代际变化知之甚少。
研究组分析了1421年至2023年大西洋-欧洲喷气式飞机的强度、倾斜度和纬度，并对大气场进行了月度和每日重建。他们将这些急流指数的变化与阻塞频率和气旋活动数据以及欧洲的干旱和洪水重建进行了比较。
中欧的夏季干旱在急流向极地移动的时期加剧。与阻塞减少相关的赤道向上移动的喷气式飞机导致西欧和阿尔卑斯山频繁发生洪水，特别是在冬季。导致洪水反复出现的天气模式通常是整个季节的特征，因此在季节甚至年度尺度上都可以看到洪峰流量和急流指数之间的关联。喷射强度和倾斜度受到火山爆发的显著影响。研究组从600年的角度来看，最近急流指数的变化在过去的变化范围内，不能成为洪水和干旱频率增加的驱动因素。
附：英文原文
Title: Past hydroclimate extremes in Europe driven by Atlantic jet stream and recurrent weather patterns
Author: Brnnimann, Stefan, Franke, Jrg, Valler, Veronika, Hand, Ralf, Samakinwa, Eric, Lundstad, Elin, Burgdorf, Angela-Maria, Lipfert, Laura, Pfister, Lucas, Imfeld, Noemi, Rohrer, Marco
Issue&Volume: 2025-02-27
Abstract: The jet stream over the Atlantic–European sector is relevant for weather and climate in Europe. It generates temperature extremes and steers moisture and flood-propelling weather systems to Europe or facilitates the development of atmospheric blocks, which can lead to drought. Ongoing climate change may alter the jet characteristics, affecting weather extremes. However, little is known about the past interannual-to-decadal variability of the jet stream. Here we analyse the strength, tilt and latitude of the Atlantic–European jet from 1421 to 2023 in an ensemble of monthly and daily reconstructions of atmospheric fields. We compare the variability of these jet indices with blocking frequency and cyclonic activity data and with drought and flood reconstructions in Europe. Summer drought is enhanced in Central Europe in periods with a poleward-shifted jet. An equatorward-shifted jet associated with decreased blocking leads to frequent floods in Western Europe and the Alps, particularly in winter. Recurrent weather patterns causing floods often characterize an entire season, such that an association between peak discharge and jet indices is seen on seasonal or even annual scales. Jet strength and tilt are significantly influenced by volcanic eruptions. Our 600-year perspective shows that recent changes in the jet indices are within the past variability and cannot be drivers of increasing flood and drought frequency.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01654-y
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01654-y