近日，中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所刘彦随教授团队以中国黄土高原为例，报道了气候变化对农作物-农田耦合关系的影响。2025年1月14日，《中国地理科学》发表了这一成果。

本研究以黄土高原为例，采用耦合协调度模型和空间自相关分析，刻画了2000-2020年农作物-农田耦合关系的时空特征，并通过地理—时间加权回归（GTWR）方法探讨了气候变化的影响规律。结果表明：1)2000-2020年，LP的农田耦合协调度呈逐渐上升趋势，形成了中部低、周边高的空间格局；2) 2000- 2020年，林田-林地耦合协调度空间分布呈正相关，高值—低值（H-L）和低值—低值（L-L）集聚区持续向东扩展，高值—高值（H-H）和低值—高值（L-H）集聚区时空演化不明显。3)气候要素对LP农作物—农田耦合协调度的影响在时间尺度上表现出较强的异质性。

夏季日数（SU）和霜冻日数（FD）的抑制作用占比较高，而年平均温度（TEM）的促进和抑制作用同时存在。极端强降水日数（R25）、持续干旱日数（CDD）和年降水量（PRE）的影响比例和强度均发生了显著变化。(4)在空间上，SU和FD对农田耦合协调度的影响随纬度和海拔的不同而不同。

LP对R25的适应性逐渐增强，CDD的扩展和PRE的增加导致LP东部地区以外的抑制增强，TEM在汾渭平原表现出促进作用。研究结果强调，作为中国重要的粮食产区，平原地区应积极应对气候变化对农作物-农田耦合关系的影响，大力维护粮食安全，促进农业可持续发展。

附：英文原文

Title: Impact of Climate Change on Crop-cropland Coupling Relationship: A Case Study of the Loess Plateau in China

Author: Li, Shunke, Liu, Yansui, Shao, Yajing, Wang, Xiaochen

Issue&Volume: 2025-01-14

Abstract: Climate change brings new challenges to the sustainable development of agriculture in the new era. Accurately grasping the patterns of climate change impacts on agricultural systems is crucial for ensuring agricultural sustainability and food security. Taking the Loess Plateau (LP), China as an example, this study used a coupling coordination degree model and spatial autocorrelation analysis to portray the spatial and temporal features of crop-cropland coupling relationship from 2000 to 2020 and explored the impact law of climate change through geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). The results were as follows: 1) the crop-cropland coupling coordination degree of the LP showed a gradual upward trend from 2000 to 2020, forming a spatial pattern with lower values in the central region and higher values in the surrounding areas. 2) There was a positive correlation in the spatial distribution of crop-cropland coupling coordination degree in the LP from 2000 to 2020, and the high value-low value (H-L) and low value-low value (L-L) agglomerations continued to expand eastward, while the spatial and temporal evolution of the high value-high value (H-H) and low value-high value (L-H) agglomerations was not obvious. 3) The impacts of climatic elements on crop-cropland coupling coordination degree in the LP showed strong heterogeneity in time scales. The inhibitory impacts of summer days (SU) and frost days (FD) accounted for a higher proportion, while the annual average temperature (TEM) had both promoting and inhibiting impacts. The impacts proportion and intensity of extreme heavy precipitation day (R25), continuous drought days (CDD), and annual precipitation (PRE) all experienced significant changes. 4) In space, the impacts of SU and FD on the crop-cropland coupling coordination degree varied with latitude and altitude. The adaptability of the LP to R25 gradually strengthened, and the extensions of CDD and increase of PRE led to the increasing inhibition beyond the eastern region of LP, and TEM showed a promoting impact in the Fenwei Plain. As an important grain-producing area in China, the LP should actively deal with the impacts of climate change on the crop-cropland coupling relationship, vigorously safeguard food security, and promote sustainable agricultural development.

DOI: 10.1007/s11769-025-1487-4

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-025-1487-4