近日，太平洋西北国家实验室Wenyu Zhou团队揭示了1980-2024年热带气旋向极地迁移主要受太平洋变率影响。2025年12月15日，《自然—地球科学》杂志发表了这一成果。
自1980年以来，热带气旋呈现向极地迁移的趋势，但这一现象究竟反映长期气候变化还是短期气候变率尚不明确。
研究组基于多套观测数据集及可模拟热带气旋的全球模式，深入探究了该极向迁移的驱动机制。研究表明，太平洋海温异常的三极型模态能强烈调制气旋纬度的年际变化，并在1980—2024年间主导了极向迁移过程。该三极型模态对热带气旋的影响效力远超厄尔尼诺-南方涛动或哈德利环流。若剔除其效应，极向迁移趋势微乎其微；当该模态呈负趋势时，模式甚至模拟出赤向迁移。
由于该模态自1970年以来仅呈现交替出现的年代际趋势而无长期趋势，其近年趋势及相关极向迁移现象很可能难以持续。在变暖情景下的集合预估中，热带气旋活动整体减弱，尽管哈德利环流向极扩张，高纬度地区的气旋出现频率反而减少。这些结果表明，观测到的热带气旋极向迁移主要受气候变率支配，未来变化可能与近年年代际趋势存在显著差异。
附：英文原文
Title: Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over 1980–2024 is dominated by Pacific variability
Author: Zhou, Wenyu, Leung, L. Ruby, Chang, Chuan-Chieh, Zhao, Ming, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Liang, Hsin-Chien, Tu, Chia-Ying, Balaguru, Karthik, Lu, Jian
Issue&Volume: 2025-12-15
Abstract: Since 1980, tropical cyclones have migrated poleward, but it remains unclear whether this trend reflects long-term climate change or temporary climate variability. Here we investigate the drivers of this poleward migration using multiple observational datasets and global models that permit tropical cyclones. We show that a tripolar pattern of Pacific sea surface temperature variability strongly modulates the interannual variation of cyclone latitudes and largely drove the poleward migration over 1980–2024. The tripolar pattern influences tropical cyclones more effectively than either the El Nio/Southern Oscillation or the Hadley circulation. When its effects are removed, poleward migration is negligible. When it shows negative trends, the model simulates equatorward migration. As the pattern exhibits alternating multi-decadal trends but no long-term trend since 1970, its recent trend—and the associated poleward migration—is unlikely to persist. In ensemble projections under a warming scenario, tropical cyclone activity decreases overall, leading to fewer occurrences at high latitudes despite the poleward expansion of the Hadley cell. These results indicate that climate variability has played a dominant role in the observed poleward migration of tropical cyclones, and that future changes may differ markedly from the recent multi-decadal trends.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01866-2
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01866-2