近日，北京师范大学鲁瑞洁团队研究了1980-2020年伊犁河流域干旱时空特征。相关论文发表在2025年12月15日出版的《中国地理科学》杂志上。

中国西北部的伊犁河流域是重要的生态安全屏障，但在全球气候变化背景下频发的干旱对粮食安全和生态稳定构成严重威胁。然而，该区域干旱的时空演变特征及其驱动机制尚不明确。

研究组基于月尺度标准化降水蒸散指数，运用游程理论识别了1980—2020年流域干旱事件，采用统计分析与时间序列方法探究了干旱的时空变化、趋势特征、周期性及持续性规律，并进一步结合气象因子与大尺度大气环流模式探讨了其潜在驱动机制。结果表明：伊犁河流域干旱在春季和夏季更为严重；中部与西南部地区干旱程度更高，且持续时间更短、强度更强；流域干旱整体呈加重趋势（森氏斜率为-0.146/10年），2005年后加剧态势显著，尤其是西北部地区；春季（森氏斜率为-0.213/10年）和夏季（森氏斜率为-0.169/10年）干旱在大部分站点呈增强趋势，而秋、冬季干旱有所缓解；未来干旱整体呈减缓态势，但夏季干旱可能持续加剧。伊犁河流域存在9年和21年两个主要干旱周期，秋季（20年）和冬季（20年）的主周期长于春季（10年）和夏季（17年）。

干旱变化受气象因子和大尺度大气环流模式共同影响，气温上升和降水不均衡加剧了干旱程度。SPEI指数与北大西洋涛动呈同相位关系，而与中东热带太平洋海表温度呈反相位关系。因此，需重点关注春季和夏季干旱的监测与防控，并在秋冬季着重关注意中部和西南部地区。

附：英文原文

Title: Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought in Yili River Basin, Northwest China in 1980–2020

Author: Huang, Mengzhen, Lu, Ruijie, Li, Peiru, Han, Yutong

Issue&Volume: 2025-12-15

Abstract: The Yili River Basin in Northwest China is a crucial ecological security barrier, yet it faces frequent droughts amid global climate change, posing significant threats to food security and ecological stability. However, the spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of drought in the basin remain unclear. Based on the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), this study employed the Run-Length theory to identify drought events in the basin during 1980–2020, applied statistical and time-series analyses to investigate the spatiotemporal variations, trends, periodicity, and persistence of drought, and explored the underlying drivers associated with meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The results showed that droughts in the Yili River Basin are more severe in spring and summer. Droughts in the central and southwestern regions exhibit greater severity, with shorter durations and stronger intensity. Drought conditions have generally worsened (Sen’s slope = 0.146/10 yr), with notable intensification since 2005, especially in the northwestern region. Spring droughts (Sen’s slope = 0.213/10 yr) and summer droughts (Sen’s slope = 0.169/10 yr) have intensified at most stations, while autumn and winter droughts have eased. In the future, droughts are expected to alleviate overall, but summer droughts may continue to intensify. The Yili River Basin exhibits two primary drought periods of 9 yr and 21 yr, with primary periods in autumn (20 yr) and winter (20 yr) being longer than those in spring (10 yr) and summer (17 yr). Finally, droughts are impacted by both meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Rising temperatures and uneven precipitation have intensified droughts. The SPEI exhibits a co-phase relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation and an antiphase relationship with the East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature. Therefore, close monitoring and mitigation are necessary for spring and summer droughts, with a focus on the central and southwestern areas in autumn and winter.

DOI: 10.1007/s11769-025-1587-1

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-025-1587-1