近日，厦门大学段安民团队研究了西北太平洋对巴伦支-喀拉海冰春季年际至年代际变化的影响。相关论文于2025年12月12日发表在《科学-进展》杂志上。

巴伦支海-喀拉海（BKS）春季海冰覆盖范围呈现出显著的年际至年代际变化，其空间分布模式与冬季截然不同。虽然先前研究认为内部气候变率起主导作用，但其具体驱动机制尚不明确。

通过观测数据与模式模拟，研究组发现北太平洋西部的大气遥相关可解释2-4月期间巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰约26%至40%的年际至年代际变化。受西太平洋型大气遥相关（WP）伴随的辐散风强迫，一支向极地传播的罗斯贝波列通过引发北大西洋上空低层大气环流异常，增强了向极地的热量与水汽输送，从而将WP与BKS海冰变化联系起来。此外，可能源于太平洋年代际振荡的WP型年代际转变，调节了BKS海冰的变化趋势：其在2000年代加速消退，而在2015年后减缓。预测显示未来十年WP型将向负位相转变，可能加速BKS海冰的消失。

附：英文原文

Title: Western North Pacific influences on the interannual to decadal variability of Barents-Kara Sea ice during spring

Author: Shutao Cao, Anmin Duan, Aiguo Dai, Chao Zhang, Ping Zhang, Yuzhuo Peng, Qi Mao

Issue&Volume: 2025-12-12

Abstract: Spring sea ice cover in the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) exhibits notable interannual to decadal variability with spatial patterns distinct from winter. While previous studies suggest that internal climate variability dominates, the specific drivers remain to be identified. Using observations and model simulations, we reveal that atmospheric teleconnection from the western North Pacific accounts for ~26 to 40% of the interannual to decadal variability of the BKS sea ice during February-March-April. A poleward-propagating Rossby wave train, forced by divergent winds associated with the Western Pacific (WP) pattern, links WP to BKS sea ice variability by inducing lower-atmospheric circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic that enhance poleward heat and moisture transport. Furthermore, decadal shifts in the WP pattern, potentially originating from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have modulated the sea ice trend over the BKS, driving accelerated retreat in the 2000s and a slowdown after 2015. A projected transition of WP to its negative phase may accelerate BKS sea ice loss in the coming decade.

DOI: ady7939

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ady7939