近日，中国科学院地球环境研究所石正国团队揭示了全新世中期天山地形加热与中亚偶极降水异常。相关论文于2025年10月22日发表在《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

在全球变暖的背景下，干旱的中亚（ACA）气候变化的方式是一个重要问题。由于该地区地形复杂，大多数气候模型在该地区表现不佳。

研究组组使用高分辨率（~50km）和PMIP4模拟来评估ACA的全新世中期降水变化。结果表明，15个模式中只有4个模式反映了夏季降水为主的子区域的基本降水季节特征。其中，只有高分辨率CESM和IPSL-CM6A-LR成功模拟了夏季降水偶极。

塔里木盆地明显增加，天山以北地区明显减少，这与多代记录一致。北方的干燥主要与中纬度减弱的西风带的调整波列有关。而南方水汽则是由天山热强度增强驱动的季风对塔里木盆地的渗透增强引起的。模式中季风的引入主要依赖于天山加热的增强；因此，天山热强度是影响区域水文气候的关键因素，在气候模式中应予以重视。

附：英文原文

Title: Tianshan topographic heating and a Central Asian dipole precipitation anomaly in the mid-Holocene

Author: Yingying SHA, Zhengguo SHI, Xiaofei ZHANG, Ke SHANG, Peng ZHOU, Peixian SHU, Jing LEI, Xinzhou LI, Hai CHENG, Zhisheng AN

Issue&Volume: 2025/10/22

Abstract: The manner in which the climate over arid central Asia (ACA) changes in a warming world is an important issue. Due to the region’s complex terrains, most climate models do not perform well in the area. Here, we utilize high-resolution (~50km) and PMIP4 simulations to assess the mid-Holocene precipitation changes over the ACA. The results show that only 4 of the 15 models have captured the basic precipitation seasonality over the summer-precipitation-dominated sub-region. Among them, only the high-resolution CESM and the IPSL-CM6A-LR have successfully simulated the summer precipitation dipole. A significant increase occurs in the Tarim Basin, while a decrease takes place across the regions north of the Tianshan Mountains, which is consistent with multi-proxy records. The northern drying is primarily linked to the adjusted wave trains along the weakened mid-latitude westerlies. In contrast, the southern moisture stems from enhanced monsoon penetration into the Tarim Basin, driven by the enhanced Tianshan heat source. This monsoon intrusion in models depends significantly on the strengthened Tianshan heating; thus, the Tianshan heat source is a key factor in shaping the regional hydroclimate, which should be taken seriously in climate models.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-025-1704-x

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/SCES/doi/10.1007/s11430-025-1704-x