近日，云南大学胡鹏团队报道了1976/77年以后，ENSO对热带亚洲夏季风在5月开始的增强影响。相关论文于2025年10月21日发表在《大气科学进展》杂志上。

5月亚洲热带夏季风（TASM）的开始是其季节演变的关键阶段，对农业和水资源具有重要影响。

基于观测资料和再分析资料，研究组发现厄尔尼诺现象与1976/77年以后，南方涛动（ENSO）和季风开始经历了明显的年代际增强。虽然热带对流层温度对ENSO的响应基本保持不变，但ENSO在1976/77年后诱发了更强的Walker环流、更明显的赤道Rossby波和增强的温带Rossby波列。这些增强的大气过程，直接强化了ENSO–TASM的开始关系，可能是由ENSO结构和变异的年代际变化驱动的。

1976/77年以后，ENSO变化增加，结构更加连贯，北太平洋西部和北太平洋副热带海温异常更为明显。考虑到观测资料的局限性，一项1000年的piControl实验进一步证实了ENSO方差变化对季风开始的影响增强的作用。该发现强调了不断演变的ENSO特征对气候异常（如季风开始）的关键影响，为短期气候预测提供了潜在的见解。

附：英文原文

Title: Enhanced impacts of ENSO on the commencement of tropical Asian summer monsoon in May after 1976/77

Author: Yongmao Peng, Peng Hu, Wen Chen, Ruowen Yang, Jingnan Li, Qi Yan, Ziqi Niu, Kexu Zhu, Xinyang Yan

Issue&Volume: 2025-10-21

Abstract: The commencement of the tropical Asian summer monsoon (TASM) in May is a crucial phase in its seasonal evolution, with critical implications for agriculture and water resources. Based on observational and reanalysis data, this study finds that the relationship between El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon commencement experiences a notable interdecadal strengthening after 1976/77. While the tropical tropospheric temperature response to ENSO remains largely unchanged, ENSO induces a stronger Walker circulation, a more pronounced equatorial Rossby wave, an intensified extratropical Rossby wave train after 1976/77. These enhanced atmospheric processes, which directly reinforce the ENSO–TASM onset relationship, are likely driven by interdecadal shifts in the structure and variance of ENSO. Post-1976/77, ENSO displays increased variance and a more coherent structure, with more pronounced sea surface temperature anomalies in the western North Pacific and subtropical North Pacific. Given the limitations of observational data, a 1000-year piControl experiment further confirms the role of ENSO variance changes in strengthening its influence on monsoon commencement. Our findings underscore the critical influence of evolving ENSO characteristics on climate anomalies such as monsoon commencement, offering potential insights for short-term climate prediction.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-025-5274-z

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-025-5274-zviewType=HTML