近日，法国布雷斯特大学Thibaut Barreyre团队报道了热液喷口温度可跟踪东太平洋海隆（北纬9°50'）的岩浆膨胀并预测喷发。相关论文于2025年10月13日发表在《美国科学院院刊》杂志上。
热液喷口温度随洋中脊轴线的岩浆和构造活动而波动，并调节从地球深处到海洋的能量通量。由于缺乏长时间、连续的观测，这种波动只能在几分钟到几年的时间尺度上被记录下来。
研究组收集了东太平洋上升轴上5个热液喷口约35年的出口流体温度时间序列，范围在9°46′-51′N之间。该数据集显示，在1991-92年和2005-06年的喷发期间，轴向岩浆透镜体（AML）中央部分的最大喷发温度稳步上升，从~350°C到~390°C。2005-06年火山爆发后不久，气温又降至~350°C，此后一直在上升。研究组将温度升高解释为上升流区渗透率稳定下降的结果，而上升流区渗透率的下降是由压缩海洋上部顶部的AML的稳定膨胀引起的。
利用实验室确定的压力-渗透率关系，研究组估计地层加压速率为0.38 MPa/y（1992-2005年）和0.33 MPa/y（2006年以后），与2009-2011年的大地测量观测结果一致。热液喷口温度的年代际波动可能模拟了AML加压速率，从而对MORs的岩浆补给和喷发动力学提供了有价值的新约束。值得注意的是，这个温度时间序列支持了他们对2025年4月研究地点喷发的预测。
附：英文原文
Title: Hydrothermal vent temperatures track magmatic inflation and forecast eruptions at the East Pacific Rise, 9°50’N
Author: Barreyre, Thibaut, Olive, Jean-Arthur, Fornari, Daniel J., McDermott, Jill M., Parnell-Turner, Ross, Moutard, Kim, Wu, Jyun-Nai, Marjanovi, Milena
Issue&Volume: 2025-10-13
Abstract: Hydrothermal vent temperatures fluctuate in response to transient magmatic and tectonic activity at the axis of mid-ocean ridges (MORs) and modulate energy fluxes from the deep Earth to the ocean. Such fluctuations have thus far only been documented on time scales of minutes to years, because of the scarcity of long, continuous observations. Here, we assemble a ~35-year-long time series of exit fluid temperatures from five hydrothermal vents on the East Pacific Rise axis, between 9°46’-51’N. This dataset reveals a steady increase in maximum venting temperatures atop the central part of the axial magma lens (AML), from ~350 °C to ~390 °C between the 1991–92 and 2005–06 eruptions. Temperatures decreased back to ~350 °C shortly after the 2005–06 eruption and have been rising ever since. We interpret the temperature increase as a result of a steady decrease in upflow zone permeability caused by the steady inflation of the AML compressing the oceanic upper crust. Using laboratory-determined pressure–permeability relations, we estimate crustal pressurization rates of 0.38 MPa/y (1992–2005) and 0.33 MPa/y (post-2006), consistent with geodetic observations from 2009–2011. Decadal fluctuations in hydrothermal vent temperatures likely mimic the rate of AML pressurization, yielding valuable new constraints on the dynamics of magmatic replenishment and eruptions at MORs. Notably, this temperature time series underpinned our forecast of the April 2025 eruption at the study site.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2510245122
Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2510245122