近日，英国利兹大学教授Velis, Costas A.课题组报道了从地方到全球的宏观塑料污染排放清单。2024年9月4日，国际知名学术期刊《自然》发表了这一成果。

据了解，关于塑料污染的全球条约的谈判将决定未来塑料生产、使用和管理废物的政策。缔约方将受益于高分辨率的废物流和塑料排放基线，从而能够识别污染热点及其成因。国家汇总的废物管理数据可以分配到较小的尺度，以确定塑料堆积的一般点和来源现象。然而，以这种类型的空间分配来评估排放发生的条件十分具有挑战性。

该研究团队通过将排放机制的概念模型与可测量的活动数据相结合，制定了一个全球宏观塑料污染排放清单。研究人员将排放定义为从管理或管理不善的系统(受控制或受控状态)，转移到非受控系统(不受控制或不受控制状态—环境)的物质。利用机器学习和概率物质流分析，研究人员从五个陆基塑料废物排放源中确定了全球50702个城市的排放热点。

研究结果预估，全球塑料废物每年排放量为5210(4830-5630)万公吨(Mt) ，具有开放燃烧和未燃烧碎片约57%wt.和43%wt.。在全球北部，乱扔垃圾是最大的排放来源，而在全球南部，未收集的垃圾是主要的排放来源。研究结果强调，该研究可以帮助为条约谈判提供信息，并制定国家和地方废物管理行动计划和安全清单。

附：英文原文

Title: A local-to-global emissions inventory of macroplastic pollution

Author: Cottom, Joshua W., Cook, Ed, Velis, Costas A.

Issue&Volume: 2024-09-04

Abstract: Negotiations for a global treaty on plastic pollution will shape future policies on plastics production, use and waste management. Its parties will benefit from a high-resolution baseline of waste flows and plastic emission sources to enable identification of pollution hotspots and their causes. Nationally aggregated waste management data can be distributed to smaller scales to identify generalized points of plastic accumulation and source phenomena. However, it is challenging to use this type of spatial allocation to assess the conditions under which emissions take place. Here we develop a global macroplastic pollution emissions inventory by combining conceptual modelling of emission mechanisms with measurable activity data. We define emissions as materials that have moved from the managed or mismanaged system (controlled or contained state) to the unmanaged system (uncontrolled or uncontained state—the environment). Using machine learning and probabilistic material flow analysis, we identify emission hotspots across 50,702 municipalities worldwide from five land-based plastic waste emission sources. We estimate global plastic waste emissions at 52.1[48.3–56.3]million metric tonnes (Mt) per year, with approximately 57%wt. and 43%wt. open burned and unburned debris, respectively. Littering is the largest emission source in the Global North, whereas uncollected waste is the dominant emissions source across the Global South. We suggest that our findings can help inform treaty negotiations and develop national and sub-national waste management action plans and source inventories.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07758-6

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07758-6