中国地质大学隋月等依据来自土地利用模型相互比较项目模拟的结果，在研究全球森林砍伐对中国近地面气温的生物物理学影响中取得一项新突破。相关论文于2024年9月24日发表在《大气科学进展》杂志上。

该团队利用土地利用模型比对项目8个全球气候模式的月度数据，采用多模式对比的方法，定量分析了全球森林砍伐对中国近地表气温的生物物理影响。结果表明，中国的森林覆盖率(8个模式的总体平均值和范围)，相对于工业革命前的水平减少了38%[29%至45%]，并伴随着全球森林砍伐，年降温0.6K[0.05至1.4K]。

值得注意的是，地表反照率表现出0.6K[0.2至2.0K]的冷却效应，而地表潜热通量和感热通量分别抵消了0.2 K[-0.2至0.5K]和0.2K[-0.04至0.6K]的冷却效应。

在森林被砍伐的地区，这些影响在冬季和春季更为明显。晴空和多云条件下大气反馈的分离表明，云辐射效应仅占0.1 K[-0.1至0.4K]，而晴空地面向下辐射是一个重要的冷却因子，贡献高达-0.5K[-1.2至0.004K]，特别是在夏季。然而，研究结果强调，这些模式在模拟地表潜热通量和反照率，对中国森林砍伐响应的地表温度的影响方面一致性较差，需要改进这些相关过程。

据悉，在过去的一个世纪里，全球森林砍伐被认为是影响气候变化的一个重要因素。然而，人们对其影响中国气温的生物物理的程度仍不确定。

附：英文原文

Title: Biophysical Impacts of Global Deforestation on Near-Surface Air Temperature in China: Results from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project Simulation

Author: Yue Sui, Miao WEI, Bo Liu

Issue&Volume: 2024-09-24

Abstract: Global deforestation has been recognized as an important factor influencing climate change over the past century. However, uncertainties remain regarding its biophysical impacts on temperature across China. Utilizing monthly data from eight global climate models of the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project, a multi-model comparison was conducted to quantitatively analyze the biophysical impacts of global deforestation on near-surface air temperature in China, using a surface energy balance decomposition method. Results show a 38% [29% to 45%] reduction in forest cover in China (ensemble mean and range across eight models) relative to pre-industrial levels, and an annual cooling of 0.6 K [0.05 to 1.4 K] accompanied by global deforestation. Notably, surface albedo causes a cooling effect of 0.6 K [0.2 to 2.0 K], while surface latent and sensible heat fluxes partially offset this cooling by 0.2 K [-0.2 to 0.5 K] and 0.2 K [-0.04 to 0.6 K], respectively. These effects are more pronounced in winter and spring in deforested regions. Furthermore, the separation of atmospheric feedbacks under clear-sky and cloudy conditions show that, the cloud radiative effect only accounts for 0.1 K [-0.1 to 0.4 K], while the clear-sky surface downward radiation is a significant cooling factor, contributing up to -0.5 K [-1.2 to 0.004 K], particularly in summer. However, the consistency of these models in simulating the impact of surface latent heat flux and albedo on surface temperature in China response to deforestation is somewhat poor, highlighting the need to improve these related processes.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-4149-z

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-024-4149-zviewType=HTML