中国科学院大气物理研究所周天军课题组报道，预测未来多年亚洲高山区将加速变暖。相关论文于2024年9月19日发表在《科学通报》杂志上。

据介绍，亚洲高山区(HMA)是一个重要的淡水来源，因为它拥有除极地地区以外最大的冷冻水水库。HMA为十大河流提供水源，最终养活了20多亿人口。然而，自20世纪50年代初以来，由于前所未有的全球变暖，冰川加速融化威胁着周边国家的水资源。因此，对近期温度变化和冰川质量损失的准确预测至关重要，但由于其受内部气候变化的影响，实施起来具有一定的挑战性。

基于大规模的年代际气候预测实验，研究人员提供了证明HMA内部产生的地表气温变化可以提前多年预测的整局，且模式初始化对年代际预测技能具有很大的附加价值。实时年代际预测表明，HMA在2025-2032年将加速升温，地表升温将增加0.98°C(0.67-1.33°C；(5%至95%范围)，相当于2016-2023年观测到的变暖量的1.75倍。

年代际可预测性来源于热带外太平洋年代际变率模态，它调节热带太平洋的对流加热，并通过向东传播的大气开尔文波影响HMA。未来十年加速变暖可能会使HMA上的冰川体积缩小1.4%。这一变化给HMA及周边地区带来了前所未有的挑战，包括潜在的水资源短缺、生态系统破坏和自然灾害风险增加。

附：英文原文

Title: Accelerated warming of High Mountain Asia predicted at multiple years ahead

Author: Tianjun Zhou a b

Issue&Volume: 2024/09/19

Abstract: High-Mountain Asia (HMA) is an important source of freshwater since it holds the largest reservoir of frozen water outside the polar regions. HMA feeds ten great rivers, ultimately supporting more than 2 billion people. However, the threat of accelerated glacier melt, which is a consequence of unprecedented global warming since the early 1950s, threatens water resources in the surrounding countries. Accurate predictions of the near-term temperature change and synergistic mass loss of glaciers are essential but challenging to implement because of the impacts of internal climate variability. Here, based on large ensembles of state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction experiments, we provide evidence that the internally generated surface air temperature variations in HMA can be predicted multiple years in advance, and the model initialization has robust added value to the decadal prediction skill. Real-time decadal forecasts suggest that the HMA will experience accelerated warming in 2025–2032, where the surface warming will increase by 0.98°C (0.67 to 1.33 °C; 5 to 95% range) relative to the reference period 1991–2020, which is equivalent to 1.75 times the observed warming during 2016–2023. The decadal predictability originates from extratropical Pacific decadal variability modes, which modulate the convective heating in the tropical Pacific and influence HMA via the eastward-propagating atmospheric Kelvin waves. Accelerated warming in the coming decade will likely increase the shrinkage of the glacier volume over the HMA by 1.4%. This change poses unprecedented challenges, including potential water scarcity, ecosystem disruption, and increased risk of natural disasters, to HMA and surrounding regions.

DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2024.09.023

Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S209592732400673X