清华大学张强团队报道了013年至2020年中国治理PM2.5污染的清洁空气行动效果。相关论文发表在2024年9月18日出版的《自然—地球科学》杂志上。
据介绍，从2013年开始，中国启动了两个阶段(2013-2017年和2018-2020年)的清洁空气行动，PM2.5浓度大幅下降。然而，PM2.5污染的改善在第二阶段期间明显放缓。
该团队量化了PM2.5改善的效果和驱动因素，以评估2013-2020年期间的相关成本，这是一个结合了排放清单模型、化学运输模型和详细的成本信息的综合框架。研究发现，全国人口加权平均PM2.5浓度下降了19.8μg m-3和10.9μg m-3，在排除气象条件变化和新冠肺炎封锁的影响后，第二阶段清洁空气政策的贡献(2.3μg m-3yr-1)明显低于第一阶段的贡献(4.5μg m-3yr-1)。
加强结构转变、有针对性地减少挥发性有机物和NH3的措施，成功地减少了第二阶段的排放，但在2017年之后，专注于管道末端控制的措施效果不佳。从2013年到2020年，PM2.5减排的挑战性越来越大，第二阶段每单位PM2.5的平均降低成本是第一阶段的两倍。研究结果强调，有必要加强、平衡、多污染物的排放控制策略。
附：英文原文
Title: Efficacy of China’s clean air actions to tackle PM2.5 pollution between 2013 and 2020
Author: Geng, Guannan, Liu, Yuxi, Liu, Yang, Liu, Shigan, Cheng, Jing, Yan, Liu, Wu, Nana, Hu, Hanwen, Tong, Dan, Zheng, Bo, Yin, Zhicong, He, Kebin, Zhang, Qiang
Issue&Volume: 2024-09-18
Abstract: Beginning in 2013, China launched two phases (2013–2017 and 2018–2020) of clean air actions that have led to substantial reductions in PM2.5 concentrations. However, improvement in PM2.5 pollution was notably slowing down during Phase II. Here we quantify the efficacy and drivers of PM2.5 improvement and evaluate the associated cost during 2013–2020 using an integrated framework that combines an emission inventory model, a chemical transport model and detailed cost information. We found that national population-weighted mean PM2.5 concentrations decreased by 19.8 μg m-3 and 10.9 μg m-3 in the two phases, and the contribution of clean air policies in Phase II (2.3 μg m-3yr-1) was considerably lower than that of Phase I (4.5 μg m-3yr-1), after excluding the impacts from meteorological condition changes and COVID-19 lockdowns. Enhanced structure transitions and targeted volatile organic compounds and NH3 reduction measures have successfully reduced emissions in Phase II, but measures focusing on the end-of-pipe control were less effective after 2017. From 2013 to 2020, PM2.5 abatement became increasingly challenging, with the average cost of reducing one unit of PM2.5 concentration in Phase II twice that of Phase I. Our results suggest there is a need for strengthened, well-balanced, emission control strategies for multi-pollutants.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01540-z
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01540-z