据了解，根据气候模型对未来热带气旋频率的预估是不确定的，范围从轻微增加到大幅减少不等。用有效气候敏感性来量化的地球表面温度，因温室气体增加而变暖的程度也是不确定的。这两个不确定性在历史上被独立研究，因为它们涉及不同的尺度——一个量化极端天气，另一个量化平均气候。
研究人员表明，这两个不确定性不是独立的，且都受到热带云对变暖的响应的影响。各种气候模型显示出，短波云辐射反馈与种子涡旋频率变化之间的反相关关系，种子涡旋是一种常见的热带气旋前兆。研究人员进一步揭示了有效气候敏感性，与热带气旋频率变化之间的反相关关系，表明在温度升高较大的模型中，全球热带气旋频率倾向于更大幅度的降低。
附：英文原文
Title: Dependence of tropical cyclone seeds and climate sensitivity on tropical cloud response
Author: Tsung-Lin Hsieh, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chenggong Wang, Wenchang Yang, Bosong Zhang, Brian J. Soden
Issue&Volume: 2024-09-13
Abstract: Projections of future tropical cyclone frequency are uncertain, ranging from a slight increase to a considerable decrease according to climate models. Estimation of how much the Earth’s surface temperature warms in response to greenhouse gas increase, quantified by effective climate sensitivity, is also uncertain. These two uncertainties have historically been studied independently as they concern different scales: One quantifies the extreme weather and the other the mean climate. Here, we show that these two uncertainties are not independent and are both influenced by the response of tropical clouds to warming. Across climate models, we show an anticorrelation between shortwave cloud radiative feedback and changes in the frequency of seed vortices, a prevalent type of tropical cyclone precursors. We further show an anticorrelation between effective climate sensitivity and tropical cyclone frequency changes, suggesting that global tropical cyclone frequency tends to decrease more substantially in models with larger temperature increase.
DOI: adi2779
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi2779