近日，中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所方创琳研究小组，报道了1980-2020年中国陆地生态系统碳储量的时空格局及其演变。这一研究成果于2024年8月28日发表在《中国科学：地球科学》上。

据悉，分析由土地利用变化引起的陆地生态系统碳储量变化是探索碳循环的重要组成部分。此外，增加陆地生态系统碳储量是隔绝人为碳排放的有效环保措施，对实现碳中和和遏制全球气候变化具有重要意义。

本文使用土地利用数据和碳密度表，结合InVEST模型，获得了中国碳储量分布图。进一步应用土地利用响应弹性系数、Theil指数多阶段嵌套分解和空间自相关分析等方法，研究了1980-2020年陆地生态系统碳储量的时空格局、变化趋势和演化特征。结果表明：中国碳储量的时间变化总体上呈现出倒S型曲线，先快速下降后缓慢下降；空间上呈东北高、西北低、中南部分布均匀的特征。土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳储量的干扰得到有效缓解。西南地区草地面积的显著减少是研究期间碳储量损失的主要原因，大型城市群建设用地对耕地的侵占是碳储量损失的重要原因之一。

Theil指数多阶段嵌套分解结果表明，中国碳储量的总体差异有所减小，而省内各市之间和市内各县间的差异有所增大。自然因素对中国碳储量空间分布的影响正在减弱，而人类活动对中国碳储量空间分布的影响日益加深。1980-2000年，沿海大都市碳密度总体呈下降趋势。2000-2020年，东部沿海城市中心城区碳密度逐渐呈现上升趋势，并继续向外扩展，一定程度上揭示了城市碳储量发展过程中的“环境库兹涅茨曲线”特征。因此，在未来的生态建设中，政府应充分考虑土地管理规划对不同区域碳储量的影响，推进土地的高效主题和规范管理，争取尽快跨越碳储量的“环境库兹涅茨曲线”拐点。

附：英文原文

Title: Spatial-temporal patterns and evolution of carbon storage in China’s terrestrial ecosystems from 1980 to 2020

Author: Shaojian WANG, Shijie ZHOU, Chuanglin FANG

Issue&Volume: 2024/08/28

Abstract: Analyzing the changes in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems caused by land use changes is a crucial part of exploring the carbon cycle. In addition, enhancing carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems is an effective and environmentally friendly measure to sequester anthropogenic carbon emissions, which is significant for achieving carbon neutrality and curbing global climate change. This paper uses land use data and carbon density tables with the InVEST model to obtain a carbon storage distribution map of China. It further applies land use response elasticity coefficients, Theil index multi-stage nested decomposition, and spatial autocorrelation analysis to examine the spatial-temporal patterns, causes of changes, and evolution characteristics of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems from 1980 to 2020. The results show that the temporal changes in China’s carbon storage generally present an inverted S-curve, with an initial rapid decline followed by a slower decrease. Spatially, it features high levels in the northeast, low levels in the northwest, and a uniform distribution in the central and southern regions. The disturbance of land use type changes on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage has been effectively mitigated. The significant reduction in grassland area in the Southwest region is the main source of carbon storage loss during the study period, and the encroachment of construction land on arable land in large urban agglomerations is one of the important causes of carbon storage loss. The Theil index multi-stage nested decomposition results indicate that the overall difference in carbon storage in China has decreased, while differences among cities within provinces and among counties within cities have increased. The influence of natural factors on the distribution of carbon storage is weakening, whereas the impact of human activities is becoming more profound, enhancing its influence on the spatial distribution of carbon storage in China. From 1980 to 2000, the carbon density in coastal metropolises generally showed a declining trend. From 2000 to 2020, the carbon density in the central urban areas of eastern coastal city clusters gradually showed an upward trend and continued to expand outward, revealing to some extent the “Environmental Kuznets Curve” characteristic in the development process of urban carbon storage. Therefore, in future ecological construction, the government should fully consider the impact of land management planning on carbon storage in different regions, promote the efficient use and standardized management of land, and strive to cross the “Environmental Kuznets Curve” inflection point of carbon storage as soon as possible.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-023-1385-9

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/SCES/doi/10.1007/s11430-023-1385-9