近日，澳大利亚伍伦贡大学Henley, Benjamin J.及其团队成员最新的研究发现，四个世纪以来最高的海洋温度使大堡礁处于危险之中。这一研究成果发表在2024年8月7日出版的国际学术期刊《自然》上。

研究显示，2024年、2017年和2020年1-3月的珊瑚海热量极值(按平均海温异常降序排列)是400年来最热的，超过了1900年以前重建的1900年前最大值的95百分位不确定性极限。2016年、2004年和2022年的事件是第二热的，超过了第90个百分位数的限制。气候模式分析证实，人类对气候系统的影响是近几十年来快速变暖的原因。这一归因，加上最近的海洋极端温度、1900年后的变暖趋势和观测到的大规模珊瑚白化，表明人为气候变化对大堡礁生态系统的生存威胁现在已经实现。

研究结果强调，如果不采取紧急干预措施，标志性的大堡礁将面临气温升高的风险，这将导致每年一度的珊瑚白化，对生物多样性和生态系统服务产生负面影响。如果按照目前的轨迹继续发展下去，将进一步威胁到地球上最伟大的自然奇观之一的生态功能和突出的普遍价值。

据介绍，2016年至2024年期间，澳大利亚大堡礁(GBR)的大规模珊瑚白化是由高海面温度(SST)驱动的。温度诱导白化的可能性是GBR2未来威胁状态的关键决定因素，但该地区近期温度的长期背景尚不清楚。

附：英文原文

Title: Highest ocean heat in four centuries places Great Barrier Reef in danger

Author: Henley, Benjamin J., McGregor, Helen V., King, Andrew D., Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove, Arzey, Ariella K., Karoly, David J., Lough, Janice M., DeCarlo, Thomas M., Linsley, Braddock K.

Issue&Volume: 2024-08-07

Abstract: Mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia between 2016 and 2024 was driven by high sea surface temperatures (SST). The likelihood of temperature-induced bleaching is a key determinant for the future threat status of the GBR, but the long-term context of recent temperatures in the region is unclear. Here we show that the January–March Coral Sea heat extremes in 2024, 2017 and 2020 (in order of descending mean SST anomalies) were the warmest in 400 years, exceeding the 95th-percentile uncertainty limit of our reconstructed pre-1900 maximum. The 2016, 2004 and 2022 events were the next warmest, exceeding the 90th-percentile limit. Climate model analysis confirms that human influence on the climate system is responsible for the rapid warming in recent decades. This attribution, together with the recent ocean temperature extremes, post-1900 warming trend and observed mass coral bleaching, shows that the existential threat to the GBR ecosystem from anthropogenic climate change is now realized. Without urgent intervention, the iconic GBR is at risk of experiencing temperatures conducive to near-annual coral bleaching, with negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems services. A continuation on the current trajectory would further threaten the ecological function and outstanding universal value of one of Earth’s greatest natural wonders.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07672-x

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07672-x