研究人员称，在过去的一个世纪里，由于人为引发变暖的累积，全球(超过75%的陆地面积)降水变率已经增长。从每日到季节内的时间尺度上都可以看到变率的增加，全球日变率每10年增加1.2%，在欧洲、亚欧大陆和北美东部尤为突出。降水变率的增加主要受与大气湿润有关的热力学驱动，在年代际尺度上受环流变化的调节。
研究结果强调，降水变率的扩大对天气和气候预测以及社会和生态系统的复原力和适应能力提出了新的挑战。
据介绍，随着气候变暖，随之而来的大气湿润增加了极端降水。降水变率也会增加，产生更大的干湿波动，但这一点尚未得到观测证实。
附：英文原文
Title: Anthropogenic amplification of precipitation variability over the past century
Author: Wenxia Zhang, Tianjun Zhou, Peili Wu
Issue&Volume: 2024-07-26
Abstract: As the climate warms, the consequent moistening of the atmosphere increases extreme precipitation. Precipitation variability should also increase, producing larger wet-dry swings, but that is yet to be confirmed observationally. Here we show that precipitation variability has already grown globally (over 75% of land area) over the past century, as a result of accumulated anthropogenic warming. The increased variability is seen across daily to intraseasonal timescales, with daily variability increased by 1.2% per 10 years globally, and is particularly prominent over Europe, Australia, and eastern North America. Increased precipitation variability is driven mainly by thermodynamics linked to atmospheric moistening, modulated at decadal timescales by circulation changes. Amplified precipitation variability poses new challenges for weather and climate predictions, as well as for resilience and adaptation by societies and ecosystems.
DOI: adp0212
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adp0212