武汉大学Hok Sum FOK团队的一项最新研究重新评估了陆地水域对南海海平面变化的贡献及其对交替ENSO事件的响应。2024年6月11日，国际知名学术期刊《中国科学：地球科学》发表了这一成果。

据悉，区域海平面变化与区域陆地水和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关。

该研究评估了中国南海(SCS)海平面变化与ENSO之间的关系，陆地蓄水(TWS)对非空间排列海平面(NSSL)的影响以及空间排列海平面(SSL)和NSSL对海平面异常(SLA)的影响。从2003年到2015年，SLAs的呈现出6.65±0.78mm/yr的长期趋势，这主要被归因于SSL。此外，2003年至2015年期间，不同强度的ENSO事件交替出现也可能是SLA异常高趋势的原因。与SSLs相比，NSSLs为SLAs提供了季节性信号，湄公河流域在季节尺度上以及珠江、红河流域在其他时间尺度上的TWS变化在很大程度上解释了NSSLs的变化。

与TWS相比，降水和蒸散的贡献相对较小。海平面变化与ENSO呈负相关关系，相对来说，海洋Niño指数与SLAs/SSLs/NSSLs的相互相关系数分别为–0.36/–0.37/–0.62，滞后时间分别为2/3/2个月。研究结果系统地再评估了不同成分对海平面变化的影响。该研究为深入分析陆地水和其他潜在海洋因素对南海海平面上升的影响提供了基准。

附：英文原文

Title: Reassessing the contributions of terrestrial waters to sea level variations in the South China Sea and its response to alternating ENSO events

Author: Pengfei YANG, Hok Sum FOK, Zhongtian MA

Issue&Volume: 2024/06/11

Abstract: Regional sea level variability is linked to regional terrestrial water and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study assessed the relationships between the sea level variations in the South China Sea (SCS) and ENSO, the impact of terrestrial water storage (TWS) on non-steric sea level (NSSL), and the contributions of steric sea level (SSL) and NSSL to sea level anomaly (SLA), respectively. From 2003 to 2015, the SLAs exhibited a long-term trend of 6.65±0.78mm/yr, which was primarily attributed to the SSLs. Additionally, during 2003–2015, ENSO events alternating with varying intensities might also be responsible for the unusually high SLA trend. Compared to the SSLs, the NSSLs contributed the seasonal signals to the SLAs, while the NSSLs changes were largely explained by the TWS in the Mekong River Basin at the seasonal scale and in the Pearl River Basin and Red River Basin at other time scales. In contrast to the TWS, the contributions of precipitation and evapotranspiration were relatively minor. A negative correlation between the sea level variations and ENSO was also found, with cross-correlation coefficients between the oceanic Niño index and SLAs/SSLs/NSSLs of –0.36/–0.37/–0.62 with lags of 2/3/2months, respectively. These findings systematically reassessed the contributions of different components to the sea level variations. This study provided a benchmark for in-depth analysis of the impacts of terrestrial water and other potential causes on sea level rise in the SCS.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-024-1344-8

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/10.1007/s11430-024-1344-8