复旦大学周文和中国科学院南海海洋研究所王春在团队合作探明，1980年以来北半球强烈和长期极端热浪快速增加的物理机制。这一研究成果发表在2024年5月17日出版的国际学术期刊《中国科学：地球科学》上。

据悉，自1980年以来，北半球中高纬度地区夏季热浪的强度和持续时间均显著增加，使该地区成为强烈、长时间极端热浪发生频率显著增加的关键区域。

研究发现，在事件发生之前，更强、更持久的高压系统和较低的土壤湿度，是西欧和北美中高纬度地区强烈且持续时间较长的极端热浪的主要驱动因素。然而，在东欧和西伯利亚，除了上述驱动因素外，事件发生前较低的云量也是这类极端热浪的主要驱动因素。这些因素相互耦合，可以通过影响事件期间的地表辐射过程来改变热浪的强度和持续时间。

研究人员利用自组织图分类方法，发现6种频率、强度和持续时间增加的天气模式，是导致1980年以后强烈和长寿命极端热浪增加的主要动力原因。此外，北半球中高纬度大部分地区夏季平均土壤湿度的减少，以及东欧和西伯利亚地区平均云量的减少，是导致极端热浪增加的主要热力学原因。

附：英文原文

Title: Physical mechanism of the rapid increase in intense and long-lived extreme heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere since 1980

Author: Yuqing WANG, Wen ZHOU, Chunzai WANG

Issue&Volume: 2024/05/17

Abstract: Since 1980, both the intensity and duration of summer heatwaves in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have significantly increased, leading this region to become a critical area for a significant increase in the frequency of intense and long-lived extreme heatwaves. We found that stronger and more persistent high-pressure systems and lower soil moisture before the events were the main drivers of intense and long-lived extreme heatwaves in western Europe and the middle and high latitudes of North America. However, in eastern Europe and Siberia, lower cloud cover before events is also a main driver of this type of extreme heatwave, in addition to the above drivers. These factors are coupled with each other and can change heatwave intensity and duration by influencing surface radiation processes during events. Using the self-organizing map classification method, we found that 6 weather patterns with increased frequency, intensity, and duration were the main dynamic reasons leading to the increase in intense and long-lived extreme heatwaves after 1980. In addition, the decrease in summer average soil moisture in most areas of the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the decrease in average cloud cover in eastern Europe and Siberia are found to be the main thermodynamic reasons leading to the increase in these extreme heatwaves.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-023-1332-x

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/SCES/doi/10.1007/s11430-023-1332-x