美国圣母大学Jason R. Rohr团队近期取得重要工作进展，他们研究提出关于全球变化驱动因素和传染病风险的荟萃分析。相关研究成果2024年5月8日在线发表于《自然》杂志上。

据介绍，人为变化导致新发传染病的增加，这些疾病与社会经济、环境和生态因素密切相关。研究表明，生物多样性、气候变化、化学污染、景观变化和物种引入的变化会改变传染病风险。然而，目前尚不清楚哪些全球变化驱动因素最容易增加疾病，以及在什么情况下增加疾病。

研究人员从文献中收集了一个数据集，其中包含2938个关于1497种宿主-寄生虫组合（包括植物、动物和人类宿主）对全球变化驱动因素的传染病反应的观察结果。研究人员发现，生物多样性丧失、化学污染、气候变化和引入物种与疾病相关终点或危害的增加有关，而城市化与疾病终点的减少有关。自然生物多样性梯度、森林砍伐和森林破碎化作为疾病的驱动因素相对不重要或具有特殊性。这些研究结果在人类和非人类疾病中是一致的。尽管如此，全球变化驱动因素对疾病的依赖性影响比较常见。

总之，这一研究有助于针对增加疾病的全球变化驱动因素进行疾病管理和监测。具体而言，减少温室气体排放、管理生态系统健康、防止生物入侵和生物多样性丧失，有助于在改善健康的社会和经济决定因素的同时，减轻植物、动物和人类疾病的负担。

附：英文原文

Title: A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease

Author: Mahon, Michael B., Sack, Alexandra, Aleuy, O. Alejandro, Barbera, Carly, Brown, Ethan, Buelow, Heather, Civitello, David J., Cohen, Jeremy M., de Wit, Luz A., Forstchen, Meghan, Halliday, Fletcher W., Heffernan, Patrick, Knutie, Sarah A., Korotasz, Alexis, Larson, Joanna G., Rumschlag, Samantha L., Selland, Emily, Shepack, Alexander, Vincent, Nitin, Rohr, Jason R.

Issue&Volume: 2024-05-08

Abstract: Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2,3,4,5,6, climate change7,8,9,10,11, chemical pollution12,13,14, landscape transformations15,16,17,18,19,20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host–parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and bio

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07380-6

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07380-6