北京大学覃栎和南京大学黄昕研究团队合作发现，在中国碳中和目标下，对空气质量、健康和可再生能源的积极影响被放大。这一研究成果发表在2024年4月29日出版的国际学术期刊《自然—地球科学》上。
据介绍，中国承诺到2060年实现碳中和以应对全球气候变化，但由于对潜在的人为-自然相互作用的理解不完整，因此尚未对由此产生的多方面国内影响进行全面分析。
研究构建了一个综合的跨学科建模框架，可以捕捉气溶胶变化对气象的反馈。研究人员强调了与2015年和2060年的基线相比，中国碳中和目标的空气质量、人类健康和可再生能源方面自我增强的协同效应。研究发现，由于减排以及气溶胶减少带来的更有利的气象条件，与2060年基线相比，将使全国人口加权PM2.5浓度和相关过早死亡减少约39 μg/m-3和113万(95%置信区间：0.97-1.29)，同时将各省太阳能(风能)发电性能提高约10%(约6%)，资源可变性大多有所降低。
在实现碳中和的同时，可再生能源性能的提高以及低碳能源转型，可能为解决剩余的空气污染和相关的人类健康损害提供额外的机会。研究结果强调，全球发展中国家和污染国家对碳中和的承诺，可以在气溶胶缓解、空气质量改善和可再生能源增强之间产生重要的正反馈，这种反馈可以通过减弱气溶胶-气象相互作用和改善大气扩散来放大。
附：英文原文
Title: Amplified positive effects on air quality, health, and renewable energy under China’s carbon neutral target
Author: Qin, Yue, Zhou, Mi, Hao, Yueting, Huang, Xin, Tong, Dan, Huang, Liangdian, Zhang, Chuan, Cheng, Jing, Gu, Weiyi, Wang, Licheng, He, Xiaojia, Zhou, Derong, Chen, Qi, Ding, Aijun, Zhu, Tong
Issue&Volume: 2024-04-29
Abstract: China pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 to combat global climate change, yet the resulting multi-aspect domestic impacts are not fully analysed due to an incomplete understanding of the underlying anthropogenic–natural interactions. Building an integrated cross-disciplinary modelling framework that can capture the feedbacks of changing aerosols on meteorology, here we highlight the amplified air quality, human health and renewable energy self-reinforcing synergies of China’s carbon neutral target in comparison to the baseline in 2015 and 2060. We find that owing to emissions reduction and more favourable meteorological conditions caused by less aerosol, achieving China’s carbon neutrality target in 2060 reduces national population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations and associated premature deaths by ~39μg m-3 and 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 0.97–1.29) million while boosting provincial solar (wind) power performance by up to ~10% (~6%) with mostly decreased resource variability in comparison to the 2060 baseline. Enhanced renewable performance along with low-carbon energy transition may provide additional opportunities to address the remaining air pollution and associated human health damages upon achieving carbon neutrality. Our results highlight that global developing and polluting countries’ pledge for carbon neutrality can produce important positive feedbacks between aerosols mitigation, air quality improvement and enhanced renewable energy, which can be amplified via weakened aerosol–meteorology interactions and better atmospheric dispersion.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01425-1
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01425-1